Gale Warning 84, NWS Juneau, AK

319 
FZAK51 PAJK 041846 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-051300-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE SE AK WEATHER THROUGH WED. 

$$

PKZ011-051300-
GLACIER BAY-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-051300-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-051300-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  



$$

PKZ021-051300-
ICY STRAIT-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-051300-
CROSS SOUND-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-051300-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING NEAR TAKU INLET. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE NEAR TAKU INLET. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-051300-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-051300-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-051300-
FREDERICK SOUND-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE STIKINE RIVER.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE STIKINE RIVER. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-051300-
SUMNER STRAIT-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-051300-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
946 AM AKST TUE FEB 4 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT
LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 PM AKST MON FEB 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A PERSISTING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. A DISSIPATING
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS HAIDA
GWAII AND BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTH OF DIXON ENTRANCE. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO THE FAR
WESTERN GULF SPILLS MULTI-LAYERS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST...OUTSIDE WATERS AND OPEN OCEAN
ACROSS THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FROM
THE PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADIAN SIDE. INCREASING
INSOLATION...IN ADDITION TO ADIABATIC HEATING FROM DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WARMS UP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S.
CERTAIN WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 20S.

 MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE PERSISTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES DOMINATING
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH DRY COOL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MADE A FEW COSMETIC TOUCHES FOR FINE TUNES OVER WIND
FIELDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST PANHANDLE AREAS AND
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA FOR TAKU WIND SCENARIO. LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO CONTINUED
COOLING TREND OF 850MB TEMPERATURE PROFILE. CLOUD FREE SKIES WILL
ENHANCE RADIATION COOLING OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. GUSTY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES
AND EXPECT SOMEWHAT DIMINISHING TREND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS HEADLINE FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU REMAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT EXTENDED FOR SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...BRAKES ON A PATTERN CHANGE? JUST A TAP. LAST TWO RUNS
OF ECMWF HAS DECIDED THAT RETURN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WOULD
BE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT IS LESS SURE. IN FACT...IT IS SAYING NOT
SO FAST...THAT THE COLD DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE THE GFS IS STILL STUBBORN AND PUSHING THE MOIST FLOW
IN AND SOME WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. WPC IS NOT SO SURE ABOUT THE
SITUATION EITHER...HAVING USED AN EQUAL COMBINATION OF GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. WITH
THE OFFICE WISDOM IMPARTED TO ME THAT OFTEN MODELS ARE TOO QUICK
TO CHANGE LARGESCALE PATTERNS. THUS HAVE NUDGED TO A HAPPY
COMPROMISE...COOLED TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...AND NOT
TOTALLY TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE EQUATION LEFT THE POPS BUT
SHAVED THEM DOWN BY A CATEGORY...AT LEAST BY A HUNDRED MILES OR
SO. THIS ALLOWS SNOW LIKELY FOR MONDAY FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN INSIDE CHANNELS...AND PUSHES A CHANCE AS FAR
NORTH AS JUNEAU...BUT ALSO SOUTH TO SITKA AND PETERSBURG. BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT...MORE LIKELY THAT ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER
WILL PAN TRUE...THIS FORECASTER'S VERSION OF SPLITTING THE BABY.
NOTED...CONFIDENCE POOR THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE BETTER IN THE MID-RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE YUKON
SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN BC AND WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO.
THIS SHOULD RELAX THE OUTFLOW WINDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH-SOUTH
PASSAGES. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT FOR EAST-WEST PASSAGES EITHER...BUT
EXPECTING A THERMAL GRADIENT...SO LEFT CROSS SOUND WINDS FRISKY.

SHORTWAVE SINKING DOWN FROM MAINLAND ALASKA STILL ON TRACK BY
MODELS. THIS WILL SPIN A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY
THAT SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHEAST WEATHER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAISED POPS FRIDAY AND SPREAD THEM INTO THE PANHANDLE AS ALL
MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY FLOW GETTING IN. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THOUGH WILL KEEP QPF DOWN. THIS WILL BE A SNOW EVENT...BUT AT THIS
POINT DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. LIKELY POPS ALL OFFSHORE. SO
RIGHT NOW HAS JUST GONE WITH A CHANCE.

FINALLY THIS WEAK LOW COMBINED WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
CANADA WILL INCITE ANOTHER OUTFLOW EVENT SO WINDS WILL INCREASE
HARD THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW HAVE SOFTENED WINDS FROM WHAT WPC
GRADIENTS SUGGEST, FEELING ITS WISE TO GRADUALLY RAISE
WINDS...GIVEN POOR CONFIDENCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. BUT RIGHT
NOW...GALES IN CROSS SOUND AND NORTHERN LYNN...AND OUTSIDE
WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS ELSEWHERE...AND LOTS OF WIND THROUGH
INTERIOR PASSES.

MODELS OF CHOICE ECWMF AND NAM. CONFIDENCE BUILDING IN MID-
RANGE...BUT VERY MUCH LACKING THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034>036-
     041>043.

&&

AHN/JWA