Gale Warning 70, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING TO A TROUGH. SOUTHERN SECTOR CIRCULATION CAN
STILL BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH HIGHER CLOUDS STILL
OBSCURING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SURFACE LOW. NOT A LOT OF
PRECIP BEING REPORTED IN OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS
RATHER THIN AS WELL. WEAK QPF OUT OF THIS FEATURE HAS MADE THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF PINNING DOWN WHERE IT
WILL RAIN WITHOUT PUTTING OUT A FORECAST WITH THE AMBIGUOUS
PHRASES "CHANCE OF RAIN" OR "RAIN LIKELY" IN THE FIRST PERIOD. AS
IT IS, BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS EVENING INCLUDE THE
HAINES AREA AND YAKUTAT. OVERNIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...EXCEPT FOR YAKUTAT WHERE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH SHOULD DRAG OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
AND BRING SOME RAIN TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE KETCHIKAN
AREA. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A BETTER DEVELOPED WARM FRONT WILL
OVERTAKE THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. EXCEPTIONS TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INCLUDE MISTY FJORDS, EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 26,
HAINES, AND SKAGWAY. HEAVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTER COAST
FROM CAPE SPENCER WEST TO ICY BAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL DRIVE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW. NO CONCERNS
ABOUT SNOW WITH EITHER THE WEAKENING TROUGH OR THE APPROACHING
FRONT.

 SMALL CRAFT WINDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND WILL PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN. HAVE POCKETS OF GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SHOWING UP OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. ALSO HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR THE EAST-WEST
INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT. WINDS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER NORTHERN CHATHAM, LYNN CANAL BY COMPARISON.
ONE AREA TO WATCH OUT FOR WILL BE THE AREA AROUND TAKU INLET,
WHERE STIFF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY EXIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

 DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. IS THIS REALLY WINTER? TEMPS
TOMORROW NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM, BUT STILL FAR, FAR
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

 USED A BLEND OF NAM, GEM, AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND
WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS DERIVED FROM NAM. POP IS A BLEND OF GEM
AND ECMWF WITH QPF FROM ECMWF. TEMPS ADJUSTED USING BIAS
CORRECTED SREF AND MOS WITH CORRESPONDING CHANGES TO SNOW LEVELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD NW ACROSS THE AREA DURING
LATE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT
WITH A WAVY COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE NW LATER FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE FRI
INTO SUN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUN NIGHT INTO MON. USED THE 12Z ECMWF IN A BLEND WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT THRU FRI...THEN WENT WITH LATEST
WPC FOR THE MOST PART FRI NIGHT ON OUT. DID BLEND IN SOME OF THE
12Z ECMWF FRI NIGHT TO SMOOTH THE TRANSITION.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO FRI...RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WED NIGHT AND THU. RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FROM PAEL NW TO THE
PAYA AREA...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS DURING THAT
TIME. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SE THU INTO FRI AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE STRONGLY...BUT THE PAYA AREA WILL REMAIN IN
HEAVY RAIN DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME. THEY MAY END UP WITH AROUND
10 INCHES OF RAIN BY MIDDAY FRI. GIVEN HOW MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED...DECIDED TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR THE PAYA
AND PAEL AREAS.

WHILE DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI...THERE
MAY BE LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN. DECIDED TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE AREA TO
HANDLE THIS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT EVEN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY DRY OUT SOMEWHAT...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO BE WARMER
DURING THE DAY FRI. ON THE OTHER HAND...MORE CLEARING COULD ALLOW
FOG TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND THERE IS NEAR THE SFC.
MODELS SUGGEST LIGHTEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE SAT.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT WHEN A FRONT MAY MOVE IN
AND BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG THOUGH SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF COOLING IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

FRITSCH/RWT