Gale Warning 63, NWS Juneau, AK

991 
FZAK51 PAJK 190359 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-191300-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
ON SUN. 

$$

PKZ011-191300-
GLACIER BAY-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-191300-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT...DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-191300-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-191300-
ICY STRAIT-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-191300-
CROSS SOUND-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. SW SWELL.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL LATE. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-191300-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-191300-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-191300-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8
FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-191300-
FREDERICK SOUND-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-191300-
SUMNER STRAIT-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-191300-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
659 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
530 AM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING AN OCCLUDED
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN AK
INTERIOR MOVING OVER THE AK PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IS FAIRLY FAST
MOVING AND EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FALL IN THE EARLY
MORNING TO TAPER OFF AND TRANSITION TO SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF AND AK
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
COAST MOUNTAINS. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN MAY SEE SOME MIX
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

 GUSTY EASTERLY PRE FRONTAL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
STRONG EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
EAST-WEST GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
INCREASING. WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THEN SHIFTING BACK EAST TONIGHT. EXPECTING
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP FOR SKAGWAY AND NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD THUS WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING.

 WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY THERE WAS THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH THE EASTERLY DOWN SLOPING
WINDS DID NOT DISAPPOINT WITH STATIONS REPORTING OVERNIGHT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. AS THE WINDS DIMINISHED AND THE
FRONT ADVANCES DID SEE A DROP IN SOME TEMPS THIS MORNING TO THE
MID 40S AND EXPECT THERE TO BE ONLY MODERATE CHANGES IN HIGHS FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TEMPS
DID DROP TO NEAR FREEZING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE FRONT WILL RAISE TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN REGIONS TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM POSSIBLE CLEAR BREAKS AS SHOWERS
DIMINISH.

 MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.
LIKED THE 00Z ECMWF/ 06Z NAM INITIALIZATION. SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES WITH SOME WAVE FEATURES ALONG THE FRONT SEEN IN
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT OVERALL NEW MODEL RUNS WERE STILL IN LINE
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST SO CHANGES WERE MINOR. WHAT THE
MODELS FAILED AT WAS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WHILE ALL MOS
GUIDANCE SHOW A STANDARD DIURNAL TREND THROUGH THE DAY THIS IT IS
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME AREAS TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR DROP THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PATTERN
REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH WEATHER FRONTS CONTINUE TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE PANHANDLE. DRIER PATTERN MAY
DEVELOP MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

 THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW REMNANT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THE WEATHER FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, PATCHY FOG IN THE AREA MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

 THE REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER. THE NEXT
WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE
LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FRONT WILL GENERATE SE
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

 THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND THE DOORSTEP OF THE
FIRST WEATHER FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THUS BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS IN THE PANHANDLE. QPF AMOUNT WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
AROUND ONE INCH. ONCE AGAIN, THIS WEATHER FRONTS WILL GENERATE SE
WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

 BY TUESDAY EVENING, RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REBUILD FROM
WESTERN BC INTO THE PANHANDLE, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRYING TREND
OVER THE PANHANDLE STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ORIENTATION AND THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A WEAKER RIDGE WILL MEAN MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND THUS
WETTER CONDITIONS, WHILE A STRONGER RIDGE WILL MEAN LESS ONSHORE
FLOW AND THUS DRIER CONDITIONS.

 WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT 4 TO 6 C)
MOVING INTO THE AREA, THIS WILL PROMOTE A MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS DEVELOP IN THE REGION. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION, THE GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. ALL THESE FACTORS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FOG EVENT LATER NEXT WEEK.

 THE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, AND LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

USES A BLEND OF ECMWF/GEMS/GFS TO GENERATE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY, THEN TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. FAIRLY CERTAIN ABOUT THE
CONTINUED WARM AND WET PATTERN, UNCERTAINTY MAINLY STEMS FROM THE
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL WEATHER FRONTS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
         DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ012-013-022-033>035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

PRB/RCL