Gale Warning 433, NWS Juneau, AK

315 
FZAK52 PAJK 291232
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-300100-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH
MONDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ041-300100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-300100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-300100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-300100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-300100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
302 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EXCESS OF 1050MB OVER THE
YUKON IS CAUSING A COLD AND CLEAR/NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WEATHER
PATTERN. THIS STRONG OF A HIGH WOULD NORMALLY CAUSE VERY STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE...BUT OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT
THEY ARE A BIT WEAKER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THINK THAT THE LIMITED SNOW PACK COULD BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR.
DESPITE THIS THERE ARE STILL GALE FORCE WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AND 40-50KT WINDS EXPECTED OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.

THE YUKON HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL B.C.
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND CAUSE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
PACKING TO SHIFT ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCLUDED A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE FOR WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40MPH NEAR PORTLAND CANAL
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH THE CHANGE IN GRADIENT ORIENTATION.

OUTFLOW WINDS AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE CAUSING DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
OVER THE RIDGE TOP FROM A FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THEREFORE
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WERE
LAST NIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CALM AREAS. TOMORROW WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AGAIN BUT TEMPERATURES WONT BE ABLE TO WARM QUITE AS
HIGH AFTER A COLDER START. THOSE LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THAT LOSE THE WIND WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER WITHOUT
THE MIXING/DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS.

UPDATED THE PRESSURE FIELDS WITH THE 12Z NAM FOR ITS GOOD
INITIALIZATION. THIS SHIFTED THE HIGH IN CANADA SOUTH SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH PORTLAND CANAL A
BIT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE VAST
DIFFERENCE THAT CAN OCCUR BETWEEN CALM AND BREEZY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE OVER SE
AK TUE MORNING...THEN BE SLOWLY FLATTENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THRU THE RIDGE TOP FOR LATER TUE INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E INTO THE
AREA...EVENTUALLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BY LATE WED. THINGS GET
COMPLICATED FOR LATE WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE HANDLING ENERGY IN
SPLIT STREAMS. AFTER COORD WITH WFO PAFC...ENDED UP USING LATEST
WPC FOR THU ON OUT.

FOR MON NIGHT...DID SLOW DOWN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS UPPER
RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF ALL BUT THE HIGHEST LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH WILL
BE ON THE THIN SIDE. DID NOT CHANGE TEMPS THOUGH AS RADIATIVE
COOLING MIGHT BE SLOWED ENOUGH BY WHAT HIGH CLOUDS DO MAKE IT IN.

FOR TUE-WED...CLOUDS SHOULD COME IN THEN PRECIP WILL FOLLOW BY TUE
NIGHT. CURRENTLY THINK PRECIP MAY BE SNOW AT THE START OVER THE
NRN AND ERN INNER CHANNELS WHERE SOME COLD AIR WILL REMAIN...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MAINLY RAIN WED. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HIGHEST OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE
TOO HEAVY. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE NW WED INTO WED EVENING
AS FRONT MOVES PAST THE AREA.

THE THU-SUN PERIOD GETS VERY TRICKY DUE TO COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW AND
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SHORTWAVES IN BOTH STREAMS. WPC WAS A MIDDLE
GROUND COMPROMISE ON THIS SO WENT WITH IT AT THIS POINT. BASICALLY
HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME FRAME IS VERY LOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034>036-
     041>043-051.

&&

FERRIN/RWT

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