Gale Warning 412, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS RATHER QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE REMAINS OF ONE FRONT AND PREPARE FOR THE
NEXT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CURRENT LOW HEADING NORTH
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH A FRONT STILL DRAPED OVER THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW
40S OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE SO ALL PRECIP AT SEA LEVEL HAS BEEN
RAIN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AND
HYDER. BOTH HIGHWAYS HAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS AND HYDER HAD HALF AN INCH. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A BIT
FRISKY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE CAPE SUCKLING BUOY REACHING
45 KT OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE.

INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO CANADA AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE MAIN CLOUD BANDS, PUSHES INTO IT. AS A RESULT SKIES
WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE PANHANDLE FROM THE W AND
SW. THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN HEAVILY MARINE MODIFIED SO THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN. 850 MB TEMPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL DIP INTO THE -4 TO -5 DEGREE C RANGE
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH MAYBE SOME -6 C 850 TEMPS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTH. THIS IS VERY MARGINAL FOR ANY SNOW ESPECIALLY WITH
THE ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE CURRENTLY. SO SHOWERS WILL MAINLY STAY RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. ONLY SKAGWAY, HAINES, HYDER, AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE HIGHWAYS MAY SEE SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ONLY A FEW
INCHES AT MOST THOUGHT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS SHOWERS DIMINISH. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON MORE FREQUENT RAIN PAYS
A VISIT TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AS A WEAK LOW EASING INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF SPREADS A WEAK FRONTAL BAND OVER THAT AREA.

WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AS THE CURRENT
SYSTEM MOVES OUT. HIGHEST WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AT THE CAPE SUCKLING
BUOY WITH 30 KT S WINDS. AS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS CLARENCE STRAIT
HAS THE HIGHEST WITH SE WINDS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. MOST PLACES SHOULD BE BELOW
20 KT BY LATER TONIGHT. WINDS BEGIN TO COME UP AGAIN TOMORROW IN
THE GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THAT WEAK LOW MOVES UP. EXPECT
MIN SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT BY WED
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
FLIP NORTH ENOUGH DUE TO THE APPROACHING WEAK LOW THAT LYNN CANAL,
STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND NORTHERN CHATHAM WILL CHANGE TO A NORTHERLY
WIND AND START INCREASING IN INTENSITY WED AFTERNOON.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS WAS A
BIT OFF ON INITIAL PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF, GEM, AND NAM WERE CLOSE POSITION WISE BUT VARIED A BIT ON
STRENGTH WITH THE NAM TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONG SIDE OF THE
EQUATION. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF ECMWF, GEM, AND SOME NAM FOR MAIN
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

 THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONG
LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. POTENTIALLY, THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY LOW FORMING JUST OFF
DIXON ENTRANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO GALE FORCE LEVEL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS CAN POTENTIALLY REACH STORM
FORCE LEVEL BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SHOULD SOUTHEAST WIND PICKING UP TO STRONG WIND LEVEL. OUTER COAST
OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND MAY SEE GUSTS TO 60 MPH. RIGHT NOW, HAVE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TALKING ABOUT THE WIND POTENTIAL ON
THURSDAY.

 ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH IN ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT ON SATURDAY. THUS, THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES.

 WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL SHOULD MOSTLY CONFINED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD ON THURSDAY
THAT COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE JUNEAU AREA WILL SEE SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER, SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MODELS HAVE FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A LANDFALLING
FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE TRYING TO FIGURE
OUT WHETHER THIS WILL BE A STRONG WIND VS HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. BEYOND THURSDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES TO BELOW AVERAGE IN REGARD TO INDIVIDUAL WEATHER FRONTS.
USES ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO REFRESH THE FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN TRANSITION TO WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-053.

&&

EAL/RCL

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