Gale Warning 403, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING
CENTRAL GULF REGION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOUT 980 MB AND WILL
GET TO A NEARLY STACKED CONFIGURATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BUOYS ARE MEASURING INCREASING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
KETCHIKAN/WRANGELL ARE GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS AND CAPE SPENCER IS GUSTING
TO 32 KNOTS; 37 KT AT OUR NORTHWESTERN BUOY 46082. FEEL THAT BIG
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ON OUTER WATERS AND
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXPOSED COASTAL SITES. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST IN PLACE FOR
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. ALL OF THE OFFSHORE AREAS ARE GOING INTO GALE WINDS
TONIGHT AND 52 GOING TO STORM AT 1200GMT WITH BARRIER JET
ENHANCEMENT. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY INLAND SIGNIFICANT
RAIN...BUT AGREEMENT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING TOMORROW IN THE YAKUTAT VICINITY. FRONTAL
RAIN BANDS DO NOT IMPACT INTERIOR CHANNELS/COMMUNITIES DURING THIS
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR OUTER COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS IS
AFTER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT, RESIDUAL FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM, AND MOSTLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS. HAVE STRONG WINDS
MENTIONED IN ZONES FOR 22 AND 27 LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND
THOUGH 50+ KTS IS STRETCHING THIS A BIT DO NOT SEE A STRONG REASON
TO DOUBT 40+ GUSTS. 28 AND 23-24 SHOULD NOT GET INTO STRONG WINDS
BUT IT BEARS WATCHING...PARENT LOW IS A LONG WAYS TO THE WEST.
MEANWHILE CLARENCE, SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND CROSS GET INTO THE GALE
ACTION TOMORROW. SOUTH WINDS HAVE FINALLY CALMED IN NORTHERN LYNN
AND SHOULD GO NORTHERLY SOON...ELECTED TO KEEP LYNN CANAL OUT OF
THE SCA CATEGORY AS GRADIENTS ARE GENERALLY TO WEAK ON THE MODELS
AND GRADIENT ORIENTATION SHOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS
FOR THIS PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE OTHER CHANNELS IS THAT THOSE
WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED PORTION, AND THE SOUTHERNMOST CHANNELS,
WILL GET INTO AT LEAST SCA. PRECIP TYPE REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
AT ALL LOW-LEVEL LOCATIONS PER OBS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH
SOME MIXED PERIODS IN THE HYDER VICINITY AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE. CLOUDS AND GENERAL GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG FOR THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS. UTILIZED MOSTLY NAM AND EC
PROGS TO UPDATE LOCAL WINDS AND MOISTURE FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEGINS WITH A FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST.
LOOKS LIKE THAT FRONT MAY STALL ON THE COAST AND WEAKEN IN PLACE
AS THE NEXT FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING A TRIPLE POINT WILL FORM ALONG THE MONDAY
FRONT NEAR 50N/140W. THIS LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK NORTH BUT
SPEED OF TRANSIT VARIES AMONGST THE MODELS. BEYOND TUESDAY, MODEL
AGREEMENT DETERIORATES RAPIDLY. GENERAL CONSENSUS ON A LARGE LOW
WITH A WELL DEVELOPED FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT DETAILS
REGARDING MULTIPLE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS AND CENTRAL PRESSURES VARY
CONSIDERABLY. ONCE THIS FEATURE IS RESOLVED, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER WELL DEVELOPED FRONT MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD FOR SNOW
AND NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST IS RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. EVEN THERE, MOST ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAYS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

IN ADDITION TO RAIN, THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF WIND IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST. NO HIGH WINDS EXPECTED, BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS FOR THE OUTER COAST.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE UP TO WEDNESDAY, THEN NUDGED EXISTING
FORECAST 50 PERCENT TO THE LATEST WPC SOLUTION. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ022.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>035-053.

&&

WESLEY/FRITSCH

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