Gale Warning 4, NWS Juneau, AK

308 
FZAK67 PAJK 120915 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1214 AM AKST SUN JAN 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-130315-
1214 AM AKST SUN JAN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SAT
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-130315-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1214 AM AKST SUN JAN 12 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

601 
FZAK67 PAJK 121229
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 12 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-130100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 12 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...THEN
PUSH INLAND THROUGH SUN. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MON. 

$$

PKZ310-130100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 12 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
643 AM AKST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW TO THE DISTANT SOUTH MOVING TOWARD VICTORIA
ISLAND ALONG WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GULF IS
CAUSING NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW
CURRENTLY FALLING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COAST SOUTH OF KETCHIKAN
DUE TO THE DISTANT LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OUT OVER THE GULF ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR. THESE HAVE BEEN AFFECTING YAKUTAT PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. CAPE OVER
THE GULF IS FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 100-300 J/KG RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE STRONGER AT TIMES WITH
MODERATE PRECIP RATES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
SHOWERS TO BE SNOW...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT THERE TO BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

THIS MORNING THERE ARE AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
ICY STRAIT TO JUNEAU AREA. SOME OF THE FOG WAS DENSE OVERNIGHT BUT
NOW VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED...STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF FOG TO
MOVE IN AND OUT AND OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE AT
TIMES. OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/FOG THE CLOUDS ARE BROKEN
OR ARE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER DAY WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS.

TONIGHT AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND
CAUSE WINDS TO BACK SOUTHERLY. PRECIP WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND START OFF AS MAINLY SNOW. LOCATIONS
THAT WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE A MIX TO
START. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A TRIPLE POINT SOUTH OF THE PARENT
LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR MOVING INTO COAST FROM BARANOF ISLAND
SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THOSE AREAS TO BE MAINLY RAIN AS
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MOVES IN. FURTHER INLAND AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE TRIPLE POINT WILL REMAIN COLD COLD ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ALL NIGHT TO STAY SNOW AND WILL SEE ABOUT 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION THROUGH 6AM. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PLACES ALONG THE COAST SEEING GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH AND INLAND CHANNELS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE
TO THEIR GOOD INITIALIZATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A LOW TRACKING
EAST OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TO YAKUTAT, THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
CANADA ALONG THE YUKON/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER. IT SHOULD BEGIN
TO OCCLUDE BEFORE ARRIVING IN THE VICINITY OF YAKUTAT, SO THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. HAVE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW
TO RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR AS A RESULT. WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW NORMALLY RESULTS IN
RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT RAIN AS WELL, BUT THIS PARTICULAR LOW IS ENTRAINING A
FAIR BIT OF COLD AIR AS IT MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. HAVE BASED THE SNOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY OFF OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IF
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AND SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING, OR A RAIN EVENT FROM THE OUTSET FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS IF THE LOW OCCLUDES LATER THAN
EXPECTED. HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AS THE LOW REACHES MAXIMUM INTENSITY JUST
BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE WILL GET PUMPED UP IN THE CENTRAL GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST LOW BY A SECOND LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW ITSELF WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER, BUT REMAIN FARTHER TO
THE WEST. END RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER 40 KT GALE FOR THE EASTERN
GULF WEST OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER BUT THIS TIME OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PRECIP FROM THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE PRIOR TO THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SUNDAY FRONT. AS A RESULT, AM EXPECTING
THIS EVENT TO BE PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND YAKUTAT. FOR YAKUTAT, THIS COULD TURN INTO AN
ADVISORY LEVEL OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT, SINCE SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRECIP ARRIVES.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES EAST INTO CANADA, PRECIP FROM THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRAIN IN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN,
PARTICULARLY OVER MISTY FJORDS. AM EXPECTING THE SNOW LEVEL TO BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT THIS SHOULD BE A RAIN EVENT, SO NO HEAVY SNOW IS
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST WILL BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, SO FOLLOW ON
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY. USED ECMWF AS A FOUNDATION FOR PRESSURE AND WIND GRIDS,
BLENDING IN GFS EARLY ON AND WPC FOR THE MID RANGE. ROUNDED OUT
THE FORECAST WITH WPC FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO THE END. POP AND
QPF PRIMARILY FROM ECMWF WITH SOME GFS...AND NAM EARLY ON. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS, HENCE THE NEED TO LOOK CLOSELY AT THESE
GRIDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

FERRIN/FRITSCH