Gale Warning 35, NWS Juneau, AK

209 
FZAK52 PAJK 110638 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
936 PM AKST FRI JAN 10 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-111500-
936 PM AKST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL DRIFT NE TO SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII FRI
NIGHT...THEN INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BC COAST SAT MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND SE ALASKA
SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-111500-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
936 PM AKST FRI JAN 10 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-111500-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
936 PM AKST FRI JAN 10 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 
10 FT. W SWELL.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-111500-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
936 PM AKST FRI JAN 10 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NW 20 KT LATE. SEAS
10 FT. SW SWELL.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 
10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-111500-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
936 PM AKST FRI JAN 10 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SW SWELL.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-111500-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
936 PM AKST FRI JAN 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

799 
FZAK52 PAJK 111300
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 11 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 11 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL BC
COAST SAT MORNING WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SAT
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.

.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN
THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS
WELL OFFSHORE...OTHERWISE VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW GALE TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 11 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS
WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL TRACK ACROSS HAIDA GWAII TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY BEING
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT JET. THE BROAD WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING.

 SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME SNOW MIXED
IN AT TIMES AND YAKUTAT HAS SEEN ICE PELLETS IN A HEAVIER SHOWER
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING HAIDA GWAII WILL BRING STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY WILL START DRY, BUT A TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE
AREA WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRICKIEST PART OF
THE FORECAST WAS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. STUCK WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING OF DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE JUNEAU AREA. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
SOME CLEARING WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE IN COLDER LOCATIONS.

 STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS
WILL TURN THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH SMALL CRAFT NORTHERLIES IN CLARENCE STRAIT AND A
PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF. NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
10-20 KT AS THE LOW AND STRONGEST GRADIENT REMAIN TO THE SOUTH .

 BLENDED IN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS FOR THE SHORT
RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS HAIDA GWAII.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF HANDLES THE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS AND NAM. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF TO SLOW DOWN THE FORWARDING
SPEED A BIT. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE STRATI
FORM OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN DIVERTING BY MID WEEK AND
USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE APPROACH FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

 AHEAD OF THE THE INCOMING LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH
INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE ONSET OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
COLD ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW...MIXING WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY...FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF.

 WITH GROWING UNCERTAINTIES...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-036-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-043-051>053.

&&

TPS/AHN