Gale Warning 33, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 9, 2014, 11:23 AM AKST (20:23 UTC)

Expired

Jan 9, 2014, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

334 
FZAK51 PAJK 092023 AAC
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-100100-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER CENTRAL SE ALASKA WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA
THU MORNING. A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE E ACROSS HAIDA GWAII THU
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ011-100100-
GLACIER BAY-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-100100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-100100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-100100-
ICY STRAIT-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT BY AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF POINT ADOLPHUS. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-100100-
CROSS SOUND-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-100100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-100100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-100100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW LATE. STRONGER WINDS NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN
SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-100100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-100100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. STRONGER WINDS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SEAS
3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-100100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1123 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 9, 5:57 AM AKST, 5 hours 26 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING LOW OVER CENTRAL SE AK WILL MOVE E OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. A BROAD BUT WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NRN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL RACE ENE ACROSS THE
NPAC AND REACH CENTRAL HAIDA GWAII LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GO
INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BC COAST THIS EVENING. USED THE 00Z
ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST AS IT HAD BEST HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL/CHARACTER/TYPE...AND
WINDS. RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS HAVE SOME
RAIN...EXCEPT FOR SNOW OVER THE FAR N. THIS PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION OVER TO SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW MOVES INLAND
AND A WLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THE FAR N SHOULD WARM UP
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FURTHER NW ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WILL LIKELY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE MAY SEE ONLY A SHORT
PERIOD OF SHOWERY WX AS PRECIP WITH THE LOW MOVING TOWARD HAIDA
GWAII WILL LIKELY REACH THEM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP WILL
BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE OUT TONIGHT THOUGH AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND...AND THE S SHOULD BE BACK TO A SHOWERY REGIME BY 06Z. AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER THE N TONIGHT...MAY SEE SOME SNOW
MIX IN OR PERIODS OF ALL SNOW DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH ACCUM...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE HEADLANDS ALONG
THE OUTER COAST WITH WLY TIP JETS EXPECTED. 25-40 KT WINDS ARE
LIKELY IN THESE BANDS. ALSO...WILL SEE SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASE OVER THE INNER CHANNELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE N...SO SCA
LEVEL SLY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER LYNN CANAL...NRN CHATHAM
STRAIT...AND STEPHENS PASSAGE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER BAND OF WLYS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL TO PARTS OF
THE ERN GULF THRU TONIGHT...WITH 20-30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE THERE ON
S SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW OVER THE NRN GULF.

OTHERWISE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL AREA TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE LARGER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE FOR FRIDAY AND
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA WITH A WEAK LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR YAKUTAT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER AROUND -6C. THIS WILL CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURE AND MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CAPE AS A RESULT.
THEREFORE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL STRONGER AND OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS AS THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 40.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS.
THE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL SHIFT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OFFSHORE FOR A PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVER NIGHT LOWS TO DROP
AND LIKELY SOME FOG TO DEVELOP. THE NORTH FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN
COOLER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN BORDERS.

ON SATURDAY A LOW/FRONT WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE GULF.
THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL
CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO MORE PERSISTENT RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW...A FEW INCHES AREA POSSIBLE BUT TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS. ONCE
THE LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS THE AREA FLOW WILL BE ZONAL AT THE
SURFACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS AND PRECIP LIKELY. ZONAL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY.

TUESDAY A WAVE STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THIS LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE SETTING UP
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF IN THE SHORT/MID RANGE AS
IT HAS HAD THE BEST CONSISTENCY LATELY AND GOOD INITIALIZATION.
ONCE MODELS START TO DIFFER MONDAY NIGHT GAVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE
NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-033-035-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

RWT/FERRIN

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2014Every gale warning in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.