Gale Warning 320, NWS Juneau, AK

285 
FZAK67 PAJK 120539 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
840 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-121400-
840 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE WEATHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE
NW GULF THROUGH WED MORNING WHILE ANOTHER FRONT FOLLOWS FROM THE
S WED AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER NW CANADA
THROUGH FRI. 

$$

PKZ310-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
840 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2014 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...HIGHEST WINDS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING...HIGHEST WINDS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

531 
FZAK67 PAJK 121230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-130100-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH NW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH WED MORNING WHILE ANOTHER FRONT FOLLOWS FROM THE S WED
AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-130100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST SOUTHWEST PORTION. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...STRONGEST
SOUTHWEST PORTION. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
336 PM AKST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOCAL AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED AROUND SETTLEMENTS THIS
MORNING...DENSE AROUND JUNEAU'S MENDENHALL VALLEY. THESE BEGAN TO
ERODE RAPIDLY FROM THE TOP AS OFFSHORE WINDS LITTLE BY LITTLE
WORKED THEIR WAY DOWN TO MIX THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER. THE PANHANDLE
THUS EXPERIENCED SUNNY AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS PERSISTING AROUND PETERSBURG AND GUSTAVUS. SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE FILTERED THE SUNSHINE OVER YAKUTAT. ALL OF THE
ACTION IS OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG RE-FORMING LATE. BUT AS
SOME DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE TAKING PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECT FOG TO BE LESS OF AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER TONIGHT WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...LOWER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS TO LOW TO MID 30S
FROM THE CENTRAL COAST SOUTH AND IN WINDIER LOCALES. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE INCREASED AT CROSS SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND A
LITTLE IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION MAY NOT
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT THE NUMBERS SUGGEST IT. WITH GUSTS
WELL INTO THE 30S, DECIDED TO BE CONSERVATIVE AND LEAVE IT IN.
EXPECT GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH TAKU INLET AS POINT BISHOP IS
VERIFYING. LARGE PARTS OF STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL HAVE LIGHTER
WINDS THAN THE 20 KT IN THE TEXT, BUT THIS REFLECTS THE OUTFLOW
AFFECTED AREAS RAISING THE AVERAGE. STILL EXPECTING SOME WINDS TO
RISE THIS EVENING NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, BUT AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS
NOT SO IMPRESSIVE, AND THEIR NO SHOW THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON IS
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING. CRITICAL LEVEL LOOKS WEAK BETWEEN 400 AND
600 MB.

USED NAM, ARW, NMM, AND ECMWF FOR ANY UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOOD...AVERAGE REGARDING FOG COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...BLOCKING RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH STILL THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PLAYER FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEATHER. FLOW PATTERN
LOOKS TO KEEP ALL THE CLOUDS AND WEATHER STREAMING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA. A MINOR TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT SOME GUSTIER
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM INTERIOR VALLEYS LIKE THE STIKINE AND TAKU
VALLEYS. AM EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW AREAS OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAINLY NEAR TIDAL FLATS WITH
THE OUTGOING TIDE. BIG QUESTION MAY BE WHETHER IS GOES TO FOG OR
JUST FROSTS OUT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THE BRISK NORTHERLY GRADIENT IN LYNN CANAL
TO PERSIST TO EXPECT NORTH SMALL CRAFTS TO CONTINUE THERE AND
LIGHTENING UP AS IT GETS CLOSER TO POINT RETREAT. MAY NOT HAVE
ENOUGH OUTFLOW WIND OUT CROSS SOUND TO START WITH BUT WILL BE
REVIEWING THAT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

IN THE LONGER RANGE CLOUDS AND LOW PRESSURE AREAS START TO INTRUDE
INTO THE DRIER WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
PRESENT THINK THE 15 TO 30 POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME
IS A GOOD START. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO AVERAGE FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-041>043-051-052.

&&

JWA/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU