Gale Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

135 
FZAK67 PAJK 051250
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-060100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
MON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN
AFTERNOON WILL FILL AS IT MOVES N TO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY MON
MORNING.  

$$

PKZ310-060100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014 

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN HALF. SEAS 17 FT.
S SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN HALF. SEAS 16
FT. 
.MON...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A 974 MB
LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BANDS MOVING OVER THE AK GULF. THE WARM FRONT
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING DOWN TO CAPE DECISION WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE INNER CHANNELS EAST-WEST CHANNELS WILL HAVE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTH SOUTH
CHANNELS WINDS IN THE PARALLEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
FLIPPING TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH THE SYNOPTIC WINDS.
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH 850 MB WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. COASTAL
AREAS NORTH OF DIXON ENTRANCE WILL SEE GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40
MPH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.

WITH LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE
YAKUTAT REGION TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES ON SUNDAY. AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES NORTH IN THE EARLY
EVENING TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
REMAINS STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR POINTS NEAR ICY STRAIT AND ALONG THE NORTH EAST GULF BUT
EXPECT THE RAIN SNOW LINE TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH ONLY THE SKAGWAY
AND NORTHWESTERN HAINES REGIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SNOW TONIGHT.
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THE NEXT BAND OVER
THE PANHANDLE. HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. KEEPING THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HAINES REGION...MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY NEAR THE BORDER AND THE SKAGWAY ADVISORY...MAINLY FOR THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. THE HIGHER QPF VALUES WERE SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS SO MAY SEE SOME LOWER SNOW TOTALS.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL KEEP THE REGION
DRY WITH SOME DECREASING CLOUDS. THINK THE FOG WILL BE LIMITED
WITH INCREASED WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE GENERAL PRESSURE AND WIND
PATTERNS. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z NAM. MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH THE POP FIELDS WITH THE NAM SHOWING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING BETWEEN
FRONTS. USED A BLEND OF 12Z EC/NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS. INCREASED
WINDS SOMEWHAT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME
ISSUES WITH RUN TO AGREEMENT BUT HAVE BEEN BETTER OVER THE LAST
DAY OR SO. THE WAVE CONTINUES NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL BE THEN
PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
I THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF RIDGING ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER
THE GULF THAT WILL BE MOVED EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY
TUESDAY BY THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.
ONE OF THE LOWS ON ITS ASSOCIATE FRONTAL BAND OR A TRAILING TROUGH/LOW WILL
BE SWEPT NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

UNTIL THE FIRST FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL AREA ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS ITS SOURCE REGION IN THE
HAWAIIAN WATERS SO EXPECTING BETTER THAN NORMAL RAIN TOTALS FOR
THE AREA. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES FROM THIS WITH MOST
STREAMS ABLE TO HANDLE THE 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT SHOULD BE
ARRIVING... AND IN IN THE JUNEAU AREA THERE HAS BEEN AN EFFORT TO
CLEAR THE ROADS AND DRAINAGES WITH THE BREAK IN THE SNOWS FROM THE
LAST WEEK.

WITH THE TYPICAL STANDARD CONCERNS OF TIMING AND SYSTEM
INTENSITIES WILL STAY WITH THE MORE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT WPC IS
PROVIDING US. WPC SOLUTION DOES TRY AND SPIN UP A LOW IN THE GULF
AND MOVE IT TO INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE EXTENDED FORECASTS ARE
FOR CHANCE OR BETTER PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM
WEDNESDAY TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM TO 4 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM TO 4 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-033-035-036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

PRB/BEZENEK