Gale Warning 17, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKST THU JAN 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA AND THE
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FLOOD WARNING. THIS
DECISION WAS PARTLY A RESULT OF UPDATED FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER THAT TAKES THE SITUK RIVER INTO A
MARGINAL MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AND PARTLY A RESULT OF IMPACTS
ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF YAKUTAT.

 A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE, BUT
THE FRONT, ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH, WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL DRY OUT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE ALREADY SEEING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
DRY WEATHER.

 THE BUILDING RIDGE, RESPONSIBLE FOR BOTH MOVING THE FRONT TO THE
WEST AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES, WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. LAST TO DIMINISH WILL BE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, WHERE A
SOUTHERLY 40 KT GALE IS STILL BLOWING AS OF THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE EVENING FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY AS A
RESULT. AS WINDS DIMINISH, AND ESPECIALLY IS AREAS WHERE CLOUD
COVER LIFTS OR DISSIPATES, THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG
EXISTS. TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST REFLECT THIS AND BOTH MARINE
AND PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST MENTION AREAS OF FOG WHERE APPLICABLE.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

 OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE THE CLOUD COVER LIFTS.
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGHS FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE AS WARM AS TODAY, IF NOT WARMER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HIGH TEMPS IS VERY HIGH. WARM SPOT IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY WAS
SITKA, WHICH SAW 56 DEGREES, WHICH WAS WARMER THAN JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TODAY. IS THIS REALLY WINTER?

 NO CHANGE IN PRESSURE GRIDS. WIND SPEEDS DERIVED FROM NAM. POP A
BLEND OF GEM, ECMWF, AND SREF. QPF FROM GFS, ECMWF, GEM, AND
SREF. TEMPS ADJUSTED UP PER BIAS CORRECTED MOS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT E EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN. THEN...IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT A PATTERN CHANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A NEW RIDGE WILL LIKELY FORM FURTHER TO THE W OF THE
AREA AND TURN FLOW ALOFT NLY. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONED TO THE
WPC FOR MON ONWARD.

 FOR THE FRI NIGHT THRU SUN PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP SOMEWHAT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOG TO FORM OVER MOST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT OVER MOST INNER CHANNELS SO THE FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AREA.
THE OUTER COAST WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY SO ANY FOG THERE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. THE
FOG WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS COOLER OVER MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS...REMAINING IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE...WHILE THE
OUTER COAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

 FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD MOVE
NE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT SO DELAYED
THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH IT BY ABOUT 12 HRS. SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIP MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ALL THE WAY INTO
THE ERN INNER CHANNELS. LIMITED POPS WITH THIS FRONT TO LIKELY.
ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE AREA BY TUE...IT SHOULD BE DRIER
AGAIN.

 FOR MIDWEEK ONWARD...NEW UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NW WILL
HELP USHER IN COOLER AIR. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE
THE RIDGE SETS UP AND HOW MUCH COLDER AIR GETS IN...BUT IT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL...BUT KEPT IN CHANCE POPS WED INTO THU TO
ALLOW FOR THE MODEL DIFFERENCES TO SORT THEMSELVES OUT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-019.
         AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-053.

&&

FRITSCH/RWT