Gale Warning 147, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
327 PM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A 965 MB
LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE KENAI
PENINSULA WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT THEN
STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
WIND DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT. A DEVELOPING
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY ENHANCING WIND AND RAIN.

LONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN
ON PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. 6 HOUR RAIN FALL AMOUNTS
UP ONE HALF TO ONE INCH FRO MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGH QPF VALUES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY.
24 RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE UP TO 4 INCHES
AND POSSIBLE MORE. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIP RIVER WILL SHOW
RAPID RISES, HOWEVER SINCE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY LOW DO NOT EXPECT
ANY TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TEMPERATURES
OVER THE REGION WILL SEE ONLY SLIGHT DROPS OR OTHERWISE REMAIN
STEADY WITH THE CROSSING FRONT. FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ABOVE 800
FEET TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW
AND WITH THE HIGH QPF VALUES SNOW FALL AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 7 TO 11
INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR WHITE PASS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SNOW
TOTAL COULD BE LOWER IS THE SE FLOW RESULTS IN WETTER SNOW AND
THUS REDUCED ACCUMULATION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW TO REDUCE VISIBILITY SO KEEPING BLIZZARD WARNING
IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WILL DEVELOP
FORM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WINDS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY AS THE DEVELOPING WAVE WITH A 850 MB 50 TO 60 KT LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES IN. INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL SHOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN PICKING UP TO MAX SMALL CRAFT OF GALES THIS EVENING,
DROPPING OVER OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS WITH
GALES OVER THE SOUTH LASTING INTO TUESDAY. STORM FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING
WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR TUESDAY.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAD LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SP KEPT WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND WITH SOME HIGH RES MODELS
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. SOME SLIGHT DELAY IN INCREASING WINDS IN THE
EARLY EVENING AND ADJUSTMENTS SO SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE KLONDIKE BUT
OVERALL CHANGES WERE NEGLIGIBLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ TUESDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY / A DEVELOPING LOW ON THE
STALLED WEATHER FRONT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONTAL BAND WILL FINALLY BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE BY
WED AFTERNOON. THROUGH THIS TIME THE HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS THE THAT
REGION WILL PERSIST. THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGH PER THE SHORT TERM SECTION...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED. DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE ON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT HEADED INTO THURSDAY.

LONG RANGER RANGE SOLUTIONS DO LOCK ON TO ANOTHER SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BAND REACHING INTO THE MID TROPICS FOR A
SOURCE REGION, SO THIS FRONTAL BAND WILL BRING IN MORE WARM AIR
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALLS THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE A TRAILING
WAVE ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE
RESULTING IN STRONG SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THEM FOR
THE COASTAL WATER AS AN INITIAL FORECAST. BETTER DEVELOPMENT OR
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK MAY CHANGE THIS THROUGH THE WEEK.

EXTENDED HAS THE LOOK OF ANOTHER ONE DAY BREAK IN OUR STORM TRACK
FOR SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS THE GOOD CHANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
ON MONDAY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE OR BETTER
ON GETTING THE SYSTEMS, BUT TIMING WILL SHIFT SOME THROUGH THE
WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ019-021-024-026.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ017-022-023.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ020.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018.
         BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-031>036-041-042-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021.

&&

PRB/BEZENEK