Gale Warning 119, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
200 PM AKST SAT FEB 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT SE THROUGH SUN. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SRN GULF LATE SUN AFTERNOON. MADE NO CHANGE TO
PRESSURE GRIDS AS THEY LOOKED GOOD. DID MAKE TWEAKS TO WINDS AND
TEMPS FOR LOCAL EFFECTS.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WIND AND TEMPS. THE CURRENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORS THE MORE N-S CHANNELS...AND THEY HAVE
STRONGEST WINDS ATTM. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND
INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE MORE E-W CHANNELS...WHILE THE N-S
CHANNELS SHOULD SEE  SLIGHT WEAKENING. MOST CHANNELS WILL REMAIN
AT OR INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS...BUT MOST OF THE NRN CHANNELS WILL
BE AT GALE LEVELS. GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES WILL EXCEED
50 KT. WILL KEEP THE STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES
18/19/25 THRU SUN. THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL PICK UP FROM THE
S AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NWD TOWARD THEM...WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO THE NE OF THE
AREA. WILL SEE GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND SCA LEVEL
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

 AS FOR TEMPS...LARGE DIURNAL RANGES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. SOME INLAND WIND SHELTERED AREAS
COULD DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDY LOCATIONS
COULD BE 20+ DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THE WIND SHELTERED
REGIONS. ON SUN...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS
MODERATING A BIT...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WERE
TODAY.

 OTHERWISE...DID PARE BACK THE FREEZING SPRAY A BIT OVER THE NRN
CHANNELS AS TEMPS WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY TO OCCUR GIVEN THE WATER TEMPS. TENDED TO LIMIT THE
FREEZING SPRAY TO THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH AM KEEPING NRN LYNN CANAL WITH FREEZING
SPRAY ALL NIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY ARE COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM...MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK
FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER UNDER PERSISTING OFFSHORE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
THEN USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINING LONG TERM
PERIODS. CHANGES WERE MINOR AND MOSTLY COSMETIC TOUCHES FOR WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA SHOULD BE GRANTED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOMINATING THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND THUS INCREASING THE OFFSHORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND FIELDS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE WITH
ENHANCED RADIATION COOLING AT NIGHTTIME WITH INCREASING INSOLATION
DURING THE DAY...CAUSING A LARGE FLUCTUATION OF DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE. KEPT STRONG WINDS HEADLINE FOR SKAGWAY...HAINES
AND JUNEAU ZONES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY MID WEEK.
MAINTAINED FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ018-019-025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031-032-034>036-041>043-051-
     052.

&&

RWT/AHN