Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

617 
WWAK47 PAJK 102138
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
138 PM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014

AKZ018-110600-
/X.CON.PAJK.BZ.W.0001.140311T0400Z-140311T1300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
138 PM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 AM AKDT TUESDAY NEAR WHITE PASS....

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 AM AKDT TUESDAY. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ABOVE 800 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY AT
  TIMES. THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
  MPH WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...REDUCING
  VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE ALONG THE HIGHWAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL OF 7 TO 11 INCHES IS EXPECTED
  NEAR WHITE PASS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS A SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IS
ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED UNLESS IT IS AN ABSOLUTE EMERGENCY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

686 
WWAK47 PAJK 110546
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 PM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014

AKZ018-111300-
/X.CON.PAJK.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140311T1300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
946 PM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ABOVE 800 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD
  DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 
  45 MPH WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW... 
  REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE ALONG THE HIGHWAY. 

* SNOW...ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 11 INCHES NEAR WHITE PASS BY EARLY
  TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS A SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IS
ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED UNLESS IT IS AN ABSOLUTE EMERGENCY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

293 
WWAK47 PAJK 111240
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
440 AM AKDT TUE MAR 11 2014

AKZ018-111345-
/X.EXP.PAJK.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140311T1300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
440 AM AKDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

SNOW AND WIND NEAR WHITE PASS ARE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
244 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER SITUATION TODAY AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIND AND RAIN YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO FALL APART IN CANADA. THE PANHANDLE IS LEFT IN A
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
PUSHED JUST PAST SKAGWAY AND HAINES THIS MORNING AS WINDS AT BOTH
PLACES FINALLY SWITCHED TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BOTH HAVE
SINCE WARMED UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS FOR THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SO RAIN IS
THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE TODAY. YAKUTAT IS THE EXCEPTION WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S THEY HAVE BEEN SWITCHING BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW ALL DAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

 FOR TONIGHT, THE COLDER PART OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS
FINALLY MAKES IT TO THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER IT STILL IS NOT VERY
COLD. MORE THEN LIKELY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE OR NEAR FREEZING FOR MOST PLACES AND
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND BY LATER
TONIGHT SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION COMES WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW THAT MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.

 THE HIGHEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE RELEGATED TO SOME OF THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. SKAGWAY AND LYNN CANAL ARE ALREADY
GUSTING TO 40 MPH AS THE LOW THAT WAS IN THE NORTHERN GULF HAS
JUMPED INLAND AND IS REFORMING IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON. IN RESPONSE
A STRONG WIND HEADLINE IS UP FOR SKAGWAY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND A GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN LYNN. THOSE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE SOUTHERN YUKON LOW WEAKENS. THE OTHER PLACE IS CROSS SOUND
WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS HAVE FOCUSED THE WEST WINDS IN THE GULF
INTO 25 KT WEST WINDS IN CROSS SOUND. THOSE WINDS SHOULD ALSO
WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS SE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

 SPEAKING OF THE NEXT FRONT, THE GULF IS LOOKING TO GET NASTY
AGAIN AS GALE FORCE PRE-FRONTAL SE WINDS START TO WHIP UP THE
SEAS MIDDAY MON. GALE WARNINGS ARE GOING UP FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE GULF MON AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MIN STORM FORCE
WINDS AROUND CAPE SUCKLING. THE WINDS WILL JUST BE GETTING TO THE
OUTER COAST LATE MON AFTERNOON SO WINDS WILL BE GETTING GUSTY FOR
YAKUTAT, SITKA, AND HYDABURG. SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND MAY SEE
GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO HAVE ISSUED A
STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR ZONE 23 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
ALSO BE RISING AGAIN WITH SEAS UP TO 16 TO 19 FEET FOR THE GULF
BY MON AFTERNOON.

 PRECIP WILL BE THE OTHER INCREASING CONCERN. THIS TIME IT IS
LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY RAIN AS THE COOL AIR MASS BEFORE THE PRE-
FRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS NOT THAT STRONG. THE RAIN WILL
START IN YAKUTAT AROUND MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST WILL START TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AS TERRAIN STARTS TO WRING THE MOISTURE OUT
OF THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL
STILL BE OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON.

 SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT THERE WERE SOME
DIFFERENCES ON THE APPROACHING FRONT ON MON. GFS IS A BIT FAST
WHILE RECENT MODEL RUNS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE DISPLAYED A
SLOWER FRONTAL SPEED THEN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE DISPLAYED. IN
LIGHT OF THIS DECIDED TO SLOW UP THE FRONT A BIT ON MON.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WITH
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN KEEPING SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE N PACIFIC AND INTO THE AK
GULF. MONDAY NIGHT WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL CROSS OVER THE PANHANDLE THEN
WEAKEN AS IT EXITS INTO WESTERN CANADA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AND
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION. THE
NEXT SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO
THE CURRENT SYSTEM, PARENT LOW WILL MOVE UNDER THE ALEUTIANS THEN
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE KENAI PENINSULA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSSING THE AK GULF THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM MODEL SHOW INCREASED SPREAD WITH A LOW
MOVING UP FROM THE N PACIFIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL AK GULF WITH
THE LOW CENTER CROSSING OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

 ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WET WEATHER AND WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FEEDING THE ADVANCING FRONTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. NEW MODELS RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIER PRECIP A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FRONT. WITH THE WARM
MID LEVEL AIR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S TO MID
40S KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY OF INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH RISING SNOW
LEVELS AT THE FRONT ADVANCES. LATE IN THE WEEK THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPS MOVING IN WHICH MAY DROPS
TEMPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

 WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. INNER CHANNEL WINDS AND
OVERLAND WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY NIGHT THEN DROP OFF TUESDAY.
EAST-WEST ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS WITH
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNEL WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN REGIONS. EXPECT A REPEAT WITH THE WIND PATTERN AS
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF AND THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE.

 FELT THE ECMWF/GEM INITIALIZED WELL AND SO FAR HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THROUGH THE MID RANGE. NAM BECOME AN
OUTLIER EARLY ON AND WHILE THE GFS WAS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
INITIALLY IT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES SO FAR NOT
REFLECTED BY OTHER MODELS. USED A BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH SOME
GEM TO UPDATE GRIDS THROUGH DAY 4 THEN TRANSITIONED TO NEW WPC,
WHICH IS NOW WEIGHTING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ022-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-033>036-053.

&&

EAL/PRB