Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

036 
WWAK41 PAFG 202128
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1228 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

AKZ201-210600-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0003.140121T0300Z-140122T0900Z/
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE
1228 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT AKST TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKST TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* BLOWING SNOW...WILL CAUSE AREAS WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE 
  QUARTER MILE. 

* WINDS...EAST GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND LOCAL BLIZZARD 
  CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
  TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE 
  EXPECTED. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

086 
WWAK41 PAFG 210436
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
736 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

AKZ201-211500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140122T0900Z/
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE
736 PM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* BLOWING SNOW...WILL CAUSE AREAS WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE 
  QUARTER MILE. 

* WINDS...EAST GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND LOCAL BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
  TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE 
  EXPECTED. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

881 
WWAK41 PAFG 211146
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
246 AM AKST TUE JAN 21 2014

AKZ201-220100-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140122T0900Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0139.140121T1146Z-140122T0900Z/
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE
246 AM AKST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

* BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS.

* WINDS...EAST 25 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE 
  EXPECTED. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONE OR MORE WINTER WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

&&

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
336 AM AKST MON JAN 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE
BERING AND N PACIFIC AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN HIGH AMPLITUDE AND STATIONARY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY NORTH ACROSS AK IN THIS FLOW...AND THERE REMAINS MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE FEATURES AFTER TUE. WHAT REMAINS CERTAIN IS
THAT THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...THE WEST COAST WILL BE MUCH WETTER AND WARM THAN
NORMAL...AND THE ARCTIC COAST WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES OVER SW AK TUE...WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR TUE NIGHT AND TO THE ARCTIC
COAST WED. EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN WITH THAT FEATURE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 0C IN SOUTHERN AK TO -12C ALONG THE
BERING STRAIT AND ARCTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2-4C TODAY
AND ANOTHER 2-4C TONIGHT. MOST OF FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY MON NIGHT.

SURFACE... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED.

A STRONG LOW NEAR COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO THE SE BERING SEA BY 3PM
MON AS A 972 MB LOW...TO 100 E OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND AS A 979 MB
LOW BY 3AM TUE...TO 150 NM SW OF GAMBELL AS A 981 MB LOW BY 3PM
TUE AND TO 150 NM NW OF GAMBELL BY 3PM TUE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM SW AK TO THE BERING STRAIT TO AMBLER BY 3PM MON...THEN TO
GAMBELL TO POINT HOPE TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM TUE...AND THEN
CONTINUING NORTH.

WILL SEE 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THIS
FRONT AND LOW TODAY THROUGH TUE AND WILL CAUSE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE
WEST COAST. WILL SEE EAST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
WARNING FOR ZONE 201. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR FREEZING
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL
BE AREAS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AT 500 MB AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF SHORTS
WAVES. PREFER THE GFS IN THE SHORT RANGE SINCE THE SHORT WAVES
ARE MOVING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC WHERE GFS DOES INITIALIZING
FEATURES BETTER THAN THE NAM.

MODELS INITIALIZE ABOUT 8MB TOO WEAK AT 06Z ON LOW JUST S OF AK
PEN BUT SHOW VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3PM TUE. WILL USE GFS
SOLUTION AFTER TUE. WILL ADD 3-5 KT TO MODELS WIND SPEEDS S OF
BROOKS RANGE TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW BEING DEEPER THAN MODELS
SHOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-
AKZ215-AKZ216.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 14