Wind Chill Advisory 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS CAUSING WEAK BROAD SCALE LIFTING AND LIGHT
SNOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE SW TO THE YUKON DELTA THU THEN MOVE INTO
THE BERING SEA FRI WITH JUST FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A WEAK
RESIDUAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRI WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ALONG THAT.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NW ALASKA THU THEN RETREAT AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH SLOPE OF
ALASKA FRI AND OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR OF ALASKA SAT AND
SUN. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SNOW OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE FRI AND OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR ON THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIDGING BUILDING OVER EASTERN ALASKA NEXT WEEK WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TO
-22C OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN INCREASE A FEW DEGREES C
THU.

SURFACE...
A 1040 MB HIGH OVER HT CHUKCHI SEA WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING EAST
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE OF AK WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THU. THIS
FEATURE IS CAUSING N WINDS TO 15-25 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST...WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH THROUGH WESTERN BROOKS RANGE PASSES AND THE BERING
STRAIT. THERE ARE WINDS CHILLS 40 TO 50 BELOW AS WELL. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THU AS RIDGE WEAKENS.

AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE MATSU VALLEY TO EIELSON TO
EAGLE WILL MOVE EAST TO GLENNALLEN TO EAGLE TODAY THEN DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT 1-2 INCHES NEW SNOW IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH THEN DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES
THU. EXPECT JUST SCATTERED FLURRIES FURTHER NW OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRI.
START TO SEE MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMF
MAINTAINING A STRONGER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND KEEPING
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC FURTHER NW THEN OTHER
MODELS. AT THIS TIMES WE PREFER THE MORE CONSENSUS SOLUTION SHOWN
BY OTHER MODELS WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING SOUTH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ218.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

JB MAR 14