Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
244 PM AKST WED JAN 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL BERING SEA SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH
SAT. TROUGH FROM LOW TO NEAR BETHEL MOVING NORTH AND DISSIPATING
OVER SEWARD PENINSULA 9AM THU. TROUGH FROM KENAI PENINSULA SOUTH
WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE 9AM THU AND THEN CONTINUE
EAST INTO CANADA BY 3PM THU. TROUGH FROM MACKENZIE BAY TO THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO EXTEND FROM DAWSON CANADA
TO NOME 3PM FRI. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER HIGH ARCTIC MOVING SOUTH TO
EXTEND ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST 3AM FRI AND TO THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE 3AM SAT.

SURFACE...978 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN DRIFTING EAST. 1030 MB HIGH OVER
RUSSIAN ARCTIC PERSISTING. COLD FRONT FROM EAGLE TO KOTZEBUE
MOVING SOUTH TO EXTEND FROM DAWSON TO NENANA TO NOME 3PM
THU....THEN TO THE ALASKA RANGE CREST TO MCGRATH TO SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND 3AM FRI. WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG 73 NORTH LATITUDE MOVING TO
BARROW AT MIDNIGHT THEN TO BROOKS RANGE CREST BY 9AM AND THEN
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER INTERIOR. STRONG COLD FRONT IN HIGH ARCTIC
MOVING TO BARTER ISLAND TO BARROW 3AM FRI.

MODELS...IN THE SHORT TERM THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA ACROSS EXTREME SE
INTERIOR THU. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS THE COMPANION
VORTICITY CENTER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS STRONGER THAN NAM
INDICATES. OTHERWISE THE NAM AND GFS AGREE QUITE CLOSELY IN
FEATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. IN MEDIUM TERM THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A COLDER SOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN
THE ECMWF THOUGH INTERIOR MOS VALUES ARE SIMILAR FOR THE LOWS SAT
THROUGH TUE. AM HESITANT TO FAVOR THE GFS MUCH AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
STILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OF COURSE.

NORTH SLOPE...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES INCREASING TONIGHT FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS PICKING UP SOME OVER EASTERN COAST AND AFTER CLOUDS
THIN THU MAYBE SOME SPOTS WHERE WIND CHILLS COULD GET COLD. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT. BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI AS COLDER TEMPS COME AND WINDS
PICK UP ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER AREA.

WESTERN ALASKA...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING OVER WESTERN
AREAS AND EXPECT WINDS TO COME DOWN SOME AFTER COLD FRONT STALLS
NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND EARLY FRI. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM
KOTZEBUE AND AMBLER SOUTH THROUGH THU AS UPPER TROUGH FROM BERING
LOW ROTATES NORTH OVER AREA...THEN DRYING FROM NORTH AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT OVER YUKON DELTA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER YUKON...EXPECT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND COLD
FRONT ...AND ALSO SOME SNOW...PROBABLY 1 TO 2 INCHES...OVER
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER AREA. DRYING AND COLDER TEMPS OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR
THU NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL INTERIOR AND MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR WHILE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OCCUR OVER THE ZONES NORTH AND
WEST OF FAIRBANKS.

FURTHER COOLING EXPECTED SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH GFS
AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS AS NOTED EARLIER...WITH ECMWF RUNNING A
WARMER SOLUTION FROM THE YUKON FLATS SOUTHWARD TO THE ALASKA
RANGE. NONETHELESS BOTH MOS OUTPUTS SHOW LOWS IN THE 30S BELOW FOR
FAIRBANKS. AFTER MID WEEK MODELS INDICATE A SWING TO A WARMER
PATTERN AS THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JL JAN 14