Small Craft Advisory 49, NWS Fairbanks, AK

204 
FZAK51 PAFG 171203
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
403 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-180315-
403 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 998 MB LOW 200 NM NW OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTH OF
BARROW BY FRI AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 992 MB. A 1006 MB LOW ON
THE RUSSIAN COAST 1100 MILES WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO
A 999 MB LOW CENTER NEAR THE BERING STRAIT BY FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ225-180315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
403 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-180315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
403 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-180315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
403 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-180315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
403 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-180315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
403 AM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

CF/NS JUL 14

297 
FZAK51 PAFG 172149
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
149 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-181245-
149 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 MB LOW 200 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY SAT AFTERNOON DEEPENING TO 993 MB.

$$

PKZ225-181245-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
149 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-181245-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
149 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-181245-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
149 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-181245-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
149 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-181245-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
149 PM AKDT THU JUL 17 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RF/EWP JUL 14

944 
FZAK51 PAFG 181158
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-190300-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 MB LOW 200 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO
300 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY SAT AFTERNOON DEEPENING TO 993 MB.

$$

PKZ225-190300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO
6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-190300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-190300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-190300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-190300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

CF/NS JUL 14

981 
FZAK51 PAFG 182110
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
110 PM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-191230-
110 PM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 991 MB LOW 300 MILES NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
TO 300 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY SUN AFTERNOON WEAKENING
TO 1000 MB. A 1004 MB LOW 350 MILES WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE
WILL MOVE TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY NOON SAT DEEPENING TO
996 MB...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA INTERIOR SAT
EVENING.


$$

PKZ225-191230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
110 PM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S 20 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-191230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
110 PM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-191230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
110 PM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-191230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
110 PM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-191230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
110 PM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RF JUL 14

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1105 AM AKDT WED JUL 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND.
THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE TO 200 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY FRI
AFTERNOON AS IT DEEPENS...500 MB HEIGHT DROPPING FROM 543 DAM TO
530 DAM. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH
THE WEST COAST BY FRI MORNING WHILE DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
ESTABLISHING A LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS NOW TRANSITING ACROSS THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC
COAST NEAR LONGITUDE 120E. THIS SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY...ARRIVING OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA AND NORTHERN BERING SEA BY FRI EVENING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA MAINLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE...
A 998 MB LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY THU
EVENING...DEEPENING TO 995 MB. BY FRI EVENING THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN TO A 990 MB CENTER 200-300 MILES NORTH OF BARROW.

A 1001 MB LOW ON THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC COAST NEAR 70N/120E
IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT AREA BY LATE FRI
NIGHT...DEEPENING TO 997 MB. GFS/ECMWF MODEL POSITIONS
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE FOR 12Z SAT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE LOW WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WEST/CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST/NORTHWEST
COASTS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD.
FOR WED...WIDE BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED
TO NARROW SOME AND CREEP SLOWLY EASTWARD THU NIGHT AND FRI...POSSIBLY
GETTING AS FAR EAST AS THE DENALI AREA AND THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY BY FRI.

WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM...RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST FRI NIGHT...SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LITTLE DRYING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WED AND THU...BUT
MIN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS CONTINUING ON THE SALCHA AND CHENA RIVERS
THROUGH FRI...BUT WILL BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND AREAS NEAR THE NULATO HILLS...48 HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z FRI EXPECTED TO BE 0.5 TO 1 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. GFS/ECMWF TOTAL QPF PATTERNS LOOK
REASONABLE SIMILAR. SMALLER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES OVER THE
NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY
LOWER. BY FRI AFTERNOON...FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO 3000-4500
FEET OVER THE WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PARTS
CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. FREEZING
LEVELS MAY BE AS LOW AS THE SURFACE-1000 FT ALONG PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/ARCTIC COAST FRI AFTERNOON. OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...
FREEZING LEVELS 8000-9000 FT FALLING TO 5500-8000 FT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225.
&&

RF JUL 14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1215 PM AKDT WED JUL 16 2014

AKZ218-219-172000-
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...
CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE...ALLAKAKET...HUGHES...
BETTLES...CARIBOU MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB
1215 PM AKDT WED JUL 16 2014

...HIGH WATER CONTINUES ON THE KOYUKUK AND KOBUK RIVERS...

HIGH WATER DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE BROOKS RANGE EARLIER THIS WEEK
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE KOYUKUK AND KOBUK RIVERS AND SOME OF
THE LARGER TRIBUTARIES. WATER LEVELS ARE AT BANKFULL AND FLOWING
OVER SOME OF THE LOWEST BANKS AND INTO OLD RIVER CHANNELS AND
SLOUGHS. SIGNIFICANT EROSION IS OCCURRING IN SOME LOCATIONS AND A
LOT OF DEBRIS IS MOVING DOWNRIVER.

ON THE KOYUKUK RIVER...
A TRAINED RIVER OBSERVER REPORTED THE KOYUKUK RIVER CRESTED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY AT 21.4 FT AND THIS WAS THE
HIGHEST WATER LEVEL IN MANY YEARS. THIS HIGH WATER IS CAUSING
SIGNIFICANT BANK EROSION IN BETTLES WITH ONE LOCATION LOSING UP TO
15 FEET OF A ROAD WHICH IS ALONG THE RIVERBANK.

AT 10 AM...RESIDENTS IN ALLAKAKET REPORT THE RIVER IS STILL
SLOWLY RISING AND APPROACHING BANKFULL LEVEL. WATER IS FLOWING
OVER SOME VERY LOW RIVER BANKS AND ACROSS THE ACCESS ROAD TO THE
OLD AIRPORT. THE KOYUKUK RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT ALLAKAKET
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DOWNRIVER...THE VILLAGES OF HUGHES AND
HUSLIA SHOULD PREPARE FOR HIGH WATER AND BANK EROSION.

ON THE KOBUK RIVER...
WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BANKFULL BUT THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN ITS BANKS. A TRAINED RIVER OBSERVER IN
AMBLER REPORTED THAT THE WATER IS STILL RISING BUT SEVERAL FEET
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

PEOPLE ALONG THE KOYUKUK RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF BETTLES...AND PEOPLE
ALONG THE KOBUK RIVER SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED OF STRUCTURES...WATER
WILL RISE TO BANKFULL. BOATS AND OTHER BELONGINGS SHOULD BE MOVED
TO HIGHER LOCATIONS ABOVE THE BANK.

MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE KOYUKUK AND KOBUK
RIVER LEVELS HIGH THIS WEEK...WITH VERY HIGH WATER POSSIBLE FROM
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKDT WED JUL 16 2014

AKZ217-172000-
UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
INCLUDING...AMBLER...SHUNGNAK...KOBUK
1216 PM AKDT WED JUL 16 2014

...HIGH WATER CONTINUES ON THE KOYUKUK AND KOBUK RIVERS...

HIGH WATER DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE BROOKS RANGE EARLIER THIS WEEK
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE KOYUKUK AND KOBUK RIVERS AND SOME OF
THE LARGER TRIBUTARIES. WATER LEVELS ARE AT BANKFULL AND FLOWING
OVER SOME OF THE LOWEST BANKS AND INTO OLD RIVER CHANNELS AND
SLOUGHS. SIGNIFICANT EROSION IS OCCURRING IN SOME LOCATIONS AND A
LOT OF DEBRIS IS MOVING DOWNRIVER.

ON THE KOYUKUK RIVER...
A TRAINED RIVER OBSERVER REPORTED THE KOYUKUK RIVER CRESTED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY AT 21.4 FT AND THIS WAS THE
HIGHEST WATER LEVEL IN MANY YEARS. THIS HIGH WATER IS CAUSING
SIGNIFICANT BANK EROSION IN BETTLES WITH ONE LOCATION LOSING UP TO
15 FEET OF A ROAD WHICH IS ALONG THE RIVERBANK.

AT 10 AM...RESIDENTS IN ALLAKAKET REPORT THE RIVER IS STILL
SLOWLY RISING AND APPROACHING BANKFULL LEVEL. WATER IS FLOWING
OVER SOME VERY LOW RIVER BANKS AND ACROSS THE ACCESS ROAD TO THE
OLD AIRPORT. THE KOYUKUK RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT ALLAKAKET
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DOWNRIVER...THE VILLAGES OF HUGHES AND
HUSLIA SHOULD PREPARE FOR HIGH WATER AND BANK EROSION.

ON THE KOBUK RIVER...
WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BANKFULL BUT THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN ITS BANKS. A TRAINED RIVER OBSERVER IN
AMBLER REPORTED THAT THE WATER IS STILL RISING BUT SEVERAL FEET
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

PEOPLE ALONG THE KOYUKUK RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF BETTLES...AND PEOPLE
ALONG THE KOBUK RIVER SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED OF STRUCTURES...WATER
WILL RISE TO BANKFULL. BOATS AND OTHER BELONGINGS SHOULD BE MOVED
TO HIGHER LOCATIONS ABOVE THE BANK.

MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE KOYUKUK AND KOBUK
RIVER LEVELS HIGH THIS WEEK...WITH VERY HIGH WATER POSSIBLE FROM
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.