Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
326 AM AKDT MON JUL 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR VERY
WELL. THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 60
HOURS. YESTERDAY THE GFS BEST LIFTED INDEX NAILED THE CONVECTION
SO WILL USE AS A GUIDE AGAIN TODAY TO DETERMINE THE BEST AREAS FOR
CONVECTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...570 DAM RIDGE LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO WISEMAN
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGE WILL PINCH OFF LATER
TONIGHT WITH 570 DAM CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OVER TH CHUKCHI
SEA...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE RIDGE PULLS BACK INTO CANADA. A
552 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER SAND POINT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN MOVES OVER NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 549 CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 545 DAM CLOSED LOW HIGH IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST TO 76N 115W THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE THAT LIES FROM KODIAK TO MAY
CANADA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO LIE FROM MARSHALL TO NOATAK THIS
EVENING. A SECOND WAVE WILL LIE FROM KODIAK TO DAWSON THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVERNIGHT IN THE COL. A BRANCH OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL ROTATE NORTH TO OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THEN
BUILD NORTH AND MERGE WITH THE CLOSED HIGH TO FORM A RIDGE THAT
WILL LIE FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO YAKUTAT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES FALL PRETTY
DRAMATICALLY TODAY FROM AROUND 15 CELSIUS TO AROUND 10 CELSIUS IN
THE INTERIOR. STILL VERY WARM AIR NORTH OF THE FAIRBANKS UNDER THE
500 HPA RIDGE.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH OF FAIRBANKS TODAY.
GRADIENT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE LOOSENING UP THIS MORNING...BUT
GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A 1015 MB HIGH ANCHORS IN.

ARCTIC COAST...RIDGE OFF SHORE WILL KEEP TINGS PRETTY STABLE SO
FOG AND STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. A FEW BREAKS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST ACTUAL
TIMES. INLAND AREAS WILL BE UNSTABLE AS THEY GET SOME GOOD
RADIATIONAL HEATING AS WELL AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING OVER
THE AREA. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY GET SOME SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE PLAINS...EVEN SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON THE COAST...BUT LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE PLAINS. WINDS RAMPING UP
A LITTLE WITH THE STRONGER GRADIENT SO EXPECT WINDS UP TO 15 MPH
TODAY...AND 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEAK FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE INLAND AREAS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
THE UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK VALLEYS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS. AREAS SOUTH OF KALTAG COULD
SEE AROUND O.50 RAIN THIS MORNING WITH THAT FRONT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF GALENA TODAY BUT A LITTLE WARMER TO THE
NORTH. WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH TODAY TO BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE TANANA
RIVER. COOLER TODAY FROM WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTH...A LITTLE WARMER
TO THE NORTH. GAP FLOW WINDS ALREADY SETTLING DOWN SO THAT SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM...REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS LESS THAN
15 MPH. SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND STALLS...SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DOES NOT LOOK
ANYTHING LIKE THE PAST 3 SYSTEMS...BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL HELP KEEP
RIVERS RUNNING AT ELEVATED LEVELS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY. ELEVATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH
OF FAIRBANKS IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN AS MUCH RAINFALL AS
FAIRBANKS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THE
INTERIOR. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS FOR
INFORMATION.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JUL 14