Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AGREEMENT OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AMONG THE MODELS IS STILL NOT
INSPIRING. WE ASSUME THIS IS DUE MOSTLY TO THE FACT THAT EACH
MODEL RESOLVES AND TREATS THE NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES THAT MAKE UP
THE SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY. THERE ARE MORE COMMONALITIES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMF...AND WE HAVE RELIED MOSTLY ON THOSE MODELS...GIVING
THE NAM LITTLE PLAY BEYOND THE FIRST 24 HOURS (OR FEWER). THE GFS
AND ECMF BOTH NOW HAVE THE LOW ALOFT NEAR YUKUTAT MOVING NORTH
NORTHWEST TO CENTER ROUGHLY BETWEEN FAIRBANKS AND EAGLE AT 4 PM
THURSDAY...AND BETWEEN BETTLES AND PRUDHOE BAY AT 4 PM FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY
APPROACHING DAWSON AND HEADED WEST. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO
GIVE ZONES 222-225 ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE SHOWERY AND
MUCH LIGHTER ON THE WHOLE FROM ZONE 222 EAST. HOWEVER...STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO ZONE 222 AND AT
LEAST WESTERN 223 THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW ALOFT
CONTINUES NORTH. EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMF WERE SHOWING THIS...AND
THE 12Z GFS JUMPED ON BOARD...THOUGH IT IS SHOWING MORE TERRAIN
EFFECTS THAN THE ECMF (REASONABLY ENOUGH).

THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE GRADUALLY TO BUILD...AND THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. AN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH INTO ZONE
208 WILL BRING BRISK WINDS TO MARINE AREA 215 AND ADJACENT
ZONES. SIMILARLY...WE EXPECT BRISK WINDS TO DEVELOP IN MARINE
AREA 245 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO AREA 240 THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ARCTIC. EXTENSIVE STRATUS / FOG IS NOT EVIDENT UPSTREAM. WE
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE LANGUAGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL LIKELY KEEP
MINIMUM RH ABOVE 40 THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRIER OVER
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BUT MINIMUM RH WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE 30S...AND 25 MPH WINDS ONLY LOCALLY IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 225 AND 226. FLOOD
WATCHES FOR ZONES 222-224 LIKELY TO BE UPGRADED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SOME GROUND WATER PROBLEMS NEAR THE
TANANA RIVER LIKELY FRIDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.
&&

DJH JUN 14