Small Craft Advisory 200, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
504 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AT 500 MB...RATHER IMPRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN.
ALONG THE WEST COAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY
THEN REDEVELOP OVER CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WED NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH
TOWARDS WRANGEL ISLAND BY THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A 973 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 360 MILES WEST OF
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AT 980 MB NEARLY 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND. ACROSS THE ARCTIC A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
MOVE TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY. A 994 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTH TO BERING STRAIT IMPACTING THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH
STRONGER WINDS.

ARCTIC COAST AND NORTH SLOPE...NPP VIIRS SATELLITE DAY NIGHT BAND
IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE NORTH
SLOPE WITH OFF SHORE FLOW FROM BARROW EAST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM WAINWRIGHT SOUTHWARD WITH CLOUD
COVER VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO EASTERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN SOME
MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY SOME SMALL OPEN PATCHES OF WATER BETWEEN
THE SHOREFAST ICE AND SEA ICE NORTH OF POINT THOMSON TO THE
DEMARCATION POINT AND SPREAD CLOUD COVER BACK INTO AREAS FROM
BARROW EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH BARROW AROUND 20F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALREADY GETTING PRECIPITATION
WITH RAIN OVER THE YUKON DELTA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD FROM
THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LATER TODAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA. ALONG WITH PUSH OF MOISTURE A WARMER AIR
LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD. NOW THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTH OF WARMING OVER GALENA BY TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED FROM GFS...NAM OR ECMWF. HOWEVER IN ANY CASE
EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS TUESDAY EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH OF THE YUKON VALLEY IN PUBLIC ZONE 216 THEN
NORTHWARD TO GALENA OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITH THE
CONFIDENCE NOT AS MUCH ON THE AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION. THE PUSH
OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY WITH SNOW
PRIMARILY UP AGAINST THE NULATO HILLS AND RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
FROM ANVIK SOUTHWARD. ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH ACCUMULATION IF THAT WITH THE FREEZING RAIN. CERTAINLY OTHER
AREAS THAT COULD HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING SUCH AS UNALAKLEET AND KOTZEBUE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CURRENTLY MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...PARTICULARLY FROM EXTENDING FROM
ANTLER CREEK WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAIN IN UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
PERHAPS THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS INCREASE IN AREAS SUCH AS ANTLER
CREEK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING. ALREADY WIND ADVISORY FROM
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN PUBLIC ZONE 227 NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AS
FEEL THE WINDS WILL JUST BE SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALSO SOME NOTABLE WINDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTH WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 35 TO 45
MPH...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
ALASKA BRINING WARMER TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY AT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BY MODELS WITH +5C TO +8C FORECASTED BY MODELS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE RECORD FOR NOVEMBER IS +8C AT FAIRBANKS AIRPORT
SET IN 1996. ALSO PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM 500 MB
HEIGHTS WHICH MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BE AROUND 566DM WHICH ARE
NEAR NORMALS FOR JULY...NOT NOVEMBER. WHAT DOES THIS HIGH PRESSURE
MEAN AND SPECIFICALLY IMPACTS? NO SNOW EXPECTED. WARMER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN IN GENERAL
FOR THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THIS SETUP WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE
IMPRESSIVE INVERSIONS AT NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE EFFICIENT RADIANT
COOLING AT NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. ALREADY SEEING DIFFERENCE WITH
FAIRBANKS AIRPORT AT 11F AT MIDNIGHT AND CLEARY SUMMIT AT 36F.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POORER AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS OVER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AIR QUALITY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH POLE.
AS FOR MAXIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURES...STILL WARMER COMPARED TO
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20F DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS.
FAIRBANKS AIRPORT RECORD FOR TODAY IS 38F DEGREES SET IN 1981 WITH
CURRENT FORECAST ONLY 5 DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

MAK NOV 14