Small Craft Advisory 187, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1136 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL WE GET TO THE WEEKEND AND
THEN THE ISSUE IS MORE ABOUT LOCATION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES. RUNS
ALL INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. STILL A LOT OF
SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS AS WE GET OUT TO THE MID RANGE AND
EXTENDED PERIODS. WILL USE A MODEL BLEND TO MAKE SUBTLE CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT GRIDDED DATABASE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...AND ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. 523 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT TO SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CYCLING BACK OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATING. THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST WITH A 540 DAM HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING
STRAIT TUESDAY THEN BEING PINCHED OFF FROM THE MAIN RIDGE AND
MOVING OVER BARROW BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING EAST TO
THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM A LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVED OVER THE NORTHWEST
ARCTIC THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO CANADA
TONIGHT. A 501 DAM LOW OVER KAMCHATKA WILL RECURVE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW EXTENDS OVER ATTU
THIS MORNING AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA TO A
520 DAM LOW OVER ATKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...RIDGING
OVER THE ARCTIC WILL DRAG SOME COLD AIR SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM
AROUND 8 CELSIUS BELOW TO NEAR 20 CELSIUS BELOW BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

SURFACE...LIGHT...MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW...CONTINUES OVER THE STATE
AS THE SEMI PERMANENT GULF OF ALASKA LOW HANGS AROUND. PATTERN
WILL CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND
MOVING WEST TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. 1009MB LOW OVER
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE TO BANKS ISLAND TONIGHT.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS
1018 MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA IS ABSORBED BY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC WATERS. THE RIDGE
OVER THE ARCTIC WILL BUILD WITH A 1028 CENTER NEAR 77N 155W BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO 1033MB AS IT
MOVES TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 990 MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO SITKA
BY EARLY THURSDAY THEN RAPIDLY FALL APART AS IT CONTINUES NORTH
AND DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
200NM SOUTH OF UNALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO 100NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON NURI WILL MOVE TO ATTU BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RECURVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOTS OF STRATUS ON THE COAST AND
IN THE PLAINS THAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT AT
04/1616Z. LOW MOVES EAST...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
OCEAN THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...SO NORTHWEST COAST SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAIN. OFFSHORE FLOW OVER ALL OF THE ARCTIC BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IN THE BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS OVER KOTZEBUE
SOUND...THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA CAN BE
SEEN ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT AT 04/1616Z. NOT SURE WHAT IS
GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE STRATUS...SO WITH NO METEOROLOGICAL REASON
FOR IT TO DISSIPATE OR GET PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WILL GO WITH
PERSISTENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. INLAND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WHICH IS WEST OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HAVE SOUTH WINDS IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY FLAT WITH SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRATUS THAT
IS PUSHED UP ON THE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS THAT SHOWS UP IN THE NPP VIIRS PRODUCTS CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTTOM OUT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SO EXPECT LOWS
IN THE 5 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...A LOT OF SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS ON THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE OFFSHORE AREAS...MEANING ALMOST NO
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB NOV 14