Red Flag Warning 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

410 
WWAK63 PAFG 212101
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
101 PM AKDT SAT JUN 21 2014


AKZ218>220-212215-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0028.000000T0000Z-140622T0600Z/
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
101 PM AKDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR  STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 218...219 AND 220...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
557 AM AKDT SAT JUN 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW IN GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA PERSISTING
THROUGH MON. TROUGH FROM LOW TO EASTERN ALASKA RANGE MOVING TO MT
MCKINLEY TO FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE 4AM SUN AND TO MCGRATH TO PRUDHOE
BAY 4AM MON...THEN WEAKENING THROUGH 4PM MON WITH A LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR BARROW.

SURFACE...1034 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL BEGIN TO
DRIFT NORTH SUN. OCCLUSION FROM THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN TO
THE FAR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE MOVING TO MCGRATH TO FORT YUKON 4AM
SUN AND TO ANVIK TO AMBLER 4AM MON. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING 4AM
MON FROM FORT YUKON TO NORTHWAY.

MODELS...AGREE MUCH BETTER TODAY ON MAIN FEATURES THROUGH TUE. IN
MEDIUM TERM BOTH US AND FOREIGN MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON BUILDING
THE CANADA RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND INSTEAD KEEP LIGHT
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTH SLOPE...AS OCCLUSION NEARS THE AREA THE BRISK EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES AND THEN
DIMINISH AS THE OCCLUSION WEAKENS SUNDAY. THE OCCLUSION WILL
SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE LATER TONIGHT
AND OVER EASTERN NORTH SLOPE EARLY SUN..THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY SUN.

WESTERN ALASKA...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH OCCLUSION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
INLAND SUN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING DRY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND AREAS OF FOG.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE OCCLUSION AND UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPREAD RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WEST AND NORTH OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING IN EXTENT BEHIND THE OCCLUSION
THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH...BUT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD GET THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH. BEHIND OCCLUSION THE COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER TANANA AND FORTYMILE
COUNTRY...WHICH WILL SPREAD WEST THIS EVENING TO NEAR TANANA. ON
SUNDAY MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF BETTLES AND MANLEY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE LOWER 70S.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WET THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...AND OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY ALONG THE OCCLUSIONS AS IT
DISSIPATES. DRYING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY SO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL BE THE LOWEST SINCE TUESDAY THOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WARNINGS FOR GOODPASTER...SALCHA...AND UPPER CHENA
CONTINUE. UPPER CHENA GAUGE HAS CRESTED AND NOW FALLING WHILE THE
DOWNSTREAM HUNTS CREEK GAUGE CRESTED A FEW HOURS AGO AND HAS YET
TO START DROPPING IN EARNEST. SALCHA RIVER CRESTED AT THE BRIDGE
AT 11 PM SAT AND IS FALLING STEADILY. GOODPASTER RIVER IS EXPECTED
TO STILL BE HIGH OVER LOWER SECTION...BUT FALLING...THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING. BY THE TIME THE RAIN FROM THE INCOMING OCCLUSION
MAKES IT INTO THE RIVERS IN THE TANANA VALLEY THE LEVELS WILL BE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND ANY RISE WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

FLOOD WARNING AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.
&&

JL JUN 14