Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

231 
WWAK63 PAFG 132242
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
242 PM AKDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 218...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 219...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 220...

AKZ218-140545-
/O.EXB.PAFG.FW.W.0025.140613T2300Z-140614T0600Z/
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
242 PM AKDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 218...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 218.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AKZ219-140545-
/O.EXB.PAFG.FW.W.0025.140613T2300Z-140614T0600Z/
UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
242 PM AKDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 219...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 219.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AKZ220-140545-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-140614T0600Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
242 PM AKDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 220...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 220.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 22 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

123 
WWAK63 PAFG 140514
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
914 PM AKDT FRI JUN 13 2014

AKZ218>220-140615-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-140614T0600Z/
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
914 PM AKDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 218...219 AND 220...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
509 AM AKDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN ALL MODELS WITH SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS OUT TO 60 HOURS ON THE MAJOR FEATURES. THEY DO SHOW
DIFFERENCES AT 850 HPA IN THE HANDLING OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
RANGE. NONE OF THE MODELS DID PARTICULARLY WILL WITH CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY BUT IT WAS PRETTY WEAK AND WILL BE AGAIN TODAY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
150NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH MERGING WITH A
LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. A 538 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN
DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BE ABSORBED BY A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 539 DAM LOW
OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MERGE WITH A 539 DAM LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND
THIS MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA
TONIGHT AT 538 DAM. WEAK EAST TO WEST RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A 550 DAM CENTER DEVELOPS
OVER THE YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER THE YUKON FLATS THROUGH SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM
LIES FROM BARTER ISLAND TO AMBLER TO KOTZEBUE THEN SOUTH TO ST
MARYS THIS MORNING. IT WILL LIE FROM BARTER ISLAND TO POINT HOPE
TO TIN CITY TO EMMONAK AND SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 2 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE RISING
ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES CELSIUS MONDAY.

SURFACE...1014MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE JUST OFFSHORE NEAR BARTER ISLAND THIS EVENING...THE HIGH
WILL MERGE WITH A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO
CREATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS
IT MERGES WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER CANADA. A 996MB LOW NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TO BE 200NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 999MB BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

CONVECTION...MODELS SHOWING MOST AREAS AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
WILL PUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN Z210 AND Z215 AS WELL AS EAST
OF FAIRBANKS AND SOUTH OF FORT YUKON OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE SOUTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH
THAT WILL BE SET UP FROM BUCKLAND TO FORT YUKON AND EXTEND EAST
INTO CANADA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO NEXT
WEEK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH.

ARCTIC COAST...GOES MVFR AND IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 13/0945Z
SHOWING GOOD PROBABILITY OF PRIMARILY LOW CEILINGS AND MARGINAL
VISIBILITY FROM POINT LAY TO NUIQSUT. LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRAG WEAK FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS
MORNING. RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND WILL SET UP JUST OFF THE COAST.
WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL TURN TO NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT OVER
MOST OF THE COAST WITH LIGHT FLOW INLAND. TEMPERATURES WARMING
WITH THE RIDGE OFF THE COAST AND WARMER AIR BEING PULLED IN FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT BUT WARMER DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
40S FOR SATURDAY. WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA...NORTON SOUND...AND THE SEWARD PENINSULA. FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS ENERGY IS PULLED SOUTHEAST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH THAT IS
DEVELOPING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH TONIGHT...SATURDAY ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS FROM BUCKLAND EAST. GOES MVFR PRODUCT AT
13/0945Z HAS GOOD PROBABILITIES AROUND POINT HOPE...CAPE ROMANZOF
AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERIOR...ANOTHER QUIET DAY OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR...BUT LOOK
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF FAIRBANKS...MAINLY
OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND SATURDAY TO
EXTEND FROM BUCKLAND TO THE ALCAN BORDER AND AREAS SOUTH OF FORT
YUKON. ISOLATED ACTIVITY TODAY...EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S BY SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 50. WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES HAVE KICKED UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME AREA THIS MORNING...THEY WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH BY
THIS EVENING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
LAST NIGHT NOT VERY GOOD AS MOST AREAS STAYED BELOW 60 PERCENT.
SOUTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE LATER TODAY
SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH MOST
AREAS IN TH 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...THEN FAIR RECOVERY TONIGHT TO
AROUND 70 PERCENT. NORTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW
AREAS NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS WILL SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TODAY AND TOMORROW...SO MAY NEED
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THAT AREA. STILL NO EXTENSIVE WETTING
RAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WEST OF
MCGRATH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

SDB JUN 14