Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

967 
WWAK63 PAFG 260446
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
846 PM AKDT FRI APR 25 2014


AKZ223-226-260600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140426T0500Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
846 PM AKDT FRI APR 25 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 223 AND 226...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA AS RH VALUES
RECOVER INTO THE 30S AND 40S THIS EVENING.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
331 AM AKDT FRI APR 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...LATEST SUITE OF 25/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEAR AND MID RANGE. IN THE EXTENDED...THE
25/00Z GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE ECWMF. THERE ARE SOME
VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE
MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES DURING THE EXTENDED.

ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE ANADYR GULF AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. A 511 DAM CLOSED LOW
CENTERED 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF UNALASKA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TO
150 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK BY 00Z SUNDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS EASTWARD
MOVING LOW...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ARE
PROGGED TO TRANSVERSE THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN CANADA ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHILE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST FROM RUSSIA OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND AK WEST COAST.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH STILL PRESENT OVER THE INTERIOR ON THE
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH A 972 MB LOW POSITIONED 80 MILES WEST OF
NIKOLSKI. THE 972 MB LOW WILL MOVE EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. AS THIS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THE THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH AND OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A 1037 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ARCTIC OCEAN WILL BEGIN A PUSH SOUTHWARD
LATE THIS WEEKEND.

NORTH SLOPE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE THE DIURNAL TRENDS
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS UNDER LOW CEILINGS
DURING THE DAY AND THE RETURN OF FOG AND FLURRIES WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE.

WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...AREAS OF FOG WITH LOWERED
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF ZONES 213 AND 207.
CONSIDERED ADDING DENSE FOG INTO THE FORECAST...HOWEVER
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VISIBILITIES ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 SM TO 10
SM. WILL CONTINUE MONITOR THIS AND WILL ADD DENSE FOG WORDING IF
NEEDED. REMNANTS FROM TODAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER ZONES
214...215...SOUTHERN 216 AND 227 ARE SHIFTING NORTH. EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ZONES 215 AND 216. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE.

EASTERN INTERIOR...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PEDRO DOME RADAR
SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONE 222...EASTERN
ZONE 224 AND SOUTHERN 220. THERE ARE ALSO SOME LIGHT RETURNS IN
ZONE 223 AS WELL AS IN THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS IS THE LATEST ROUND
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE...INTO ZONES 218 AND 219 TODAY. NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
WARMING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW. THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH HAS SET
UP...THOUGH THE CHANCES ARE SMALL AND ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP MAY JUST BE SHOWERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

LTH APR 14