High Wind Watch 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
407 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AND HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS AND HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OUT TO AROUND 60 HOURS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...529 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TO OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA...AND
WILL RIDE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. THE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE FROM A 586 DAM HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO LIE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND THEN WEST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST...BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND MAJOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL LIE FROM OVER THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS...SOUTHEAST OVER THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS BY EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF COAST SATURDAY EVENING...AND
CONTINUE TO THE ARCTIC COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. AT 850 HPA...ZERO
ISOTHERM LIES EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 71N AND 72 NORTH THIS MORNING
AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH TO LIE FROM 74 170W TO 71N 139W BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...A 989MB LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST. THE REMNANTS OF EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE FENGSHEN ARE
NEAR 44N 180 THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
BE ABSORBED BY THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. A WEATHER FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC ALONG 160W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND
AND INTO COOK INLET BY LATE FRIDAY...AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
BY EARLY SATURDAY. GAP FLOW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH.
CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY. A 1028MB HIGH IN THE ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO
MACKENZIE BAY THIS EVENING...THEN BUILD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...10 TO 20 MPH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
30 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS
THE HIGH OFFSHORE SLIDES SOUTHEAST...THEN BUILDS BACK
NORTHWEST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY DRIFTING NORTH ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTH. THE MODIS IFR PROB 1KM AK
AT 110700Z HAS A GOOD PATCH OF PROBABLE IFR OVER THE NORTHEAST
ARCTIC COAST WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE OBSERVATIONS. ON THE
MODIS 11 UM BT AT 110700Z IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID AREA OF
STRATUS EXTENDS FROM MACKENZIE BAY WEST TO AROUND PITT POINT. WILL
CONTINUE THE STRATUS IN THOSE AREAS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT ONLY A
COUPLE DEGREES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT AROUND IT...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER MOST AREAS FROM THE BERING STRAIT SOUTH. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF NOME WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR THE
COAST AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND AROUND 40 MPH IN THE INLAND
AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BE MAINLY
OFFSHORE...THOUGH IT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE COAST AROUND NUNIVAK
ISLAND...AND WILL BE ONSHORE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND PRODUCE SOME MODERATE SURF FRIDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TODAY AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE
SOUTHERN NULATO HILLS AND THE LOWER YUKON RIVER DELTA WITH AROUND
ONE HALF INCH TODAY...THEN UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE AREAS NORTH OF AND EAST OF
NORTON SOUND.

INTERIOR...CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WITH
GAP WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH NEAR PASSES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. NO RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER ON
FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER AS THE RIDGE SLIPS EAST. TEMPERATURES
UP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO BE UP A LITTLE WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO GET
BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OR OVER A LARGE
AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

SDB SEP 14