High Surf Advisory 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
419 AM AKDT MON OCT 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT INTO THE MID
RANGE. INITIALIZED VERY WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.
A NUDGE TO THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS WILL BE
THE BEST OPTION TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TRANSITION TO A NW TO SE
ORIENTATION OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. A
524 DAM LOW IS MOVING SOUTH OVER BARROW BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUES SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
OVER THE MATSU VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 528 DAM LOW OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. A 553 DAM HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST SIBERIA
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER UNIMAK ISLAND. AT
850 HPA...COOLING ALOFT CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A 989MB LOW NEAR DAWSON THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING SNOW
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME FLURRIES REMAINING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY WILL BE EAST OF BEAVER IN Z220 AND EAST OF
ARCTIC VILLAGE IN Z218. THOSE AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE 2 TO 4 MORE
INCHES OF SNOW TODAY BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF TONIGHT. A 992MB LOW
IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DRIFT TO YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS IT WEAKENS TO 1014MB. 1027MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE BERING STRAIT CONTINUES TO BUILD TODAY TO 1031MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST. RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WILL MOVE TO 45N 175W BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN TO 48N 168W BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC. WINDS INCREASING AS GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND LOW IN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR Z204...206...AND
EASTERN 218 FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ALSO
COME UP IN Z203 BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANYTHING FOR THAT AREA
AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING EAST OF KUPARUK
TO 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. WEST OF KUPARUK WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE EAST OF KUPARUK
WITH 3 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY
WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS EAST OF
KUPARUK. GOES MVFR PROB PRODUCT AT 06/0930Z SHOWING SOME EXTENSIVE
AREAS OF MVFR WEST AND SOUTH OF NUIQSUT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...REMAIN QUIET FOR THE
MOMENT...BUT THINGS WILL GET EXCITING A LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEK
AS STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS INLAND.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND A LITTLE AS THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT RECEDES TO THE NORTH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW TAPERING OFF IN THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS EVENING.
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY IN Z218...Z220 AND NORTHERN Z224. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SO NO BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
EXPECTED. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SO HIGH SURF ISSUES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND...DIOMEDE...AND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 13 FEET
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ218.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-
AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY PKZ510.

&&

SDB OCT 14

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