High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1227 PM AKDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS OF SPREAD IN THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM. A
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER PALU SUNDAY MORNING AND JUST WEST OF BARROW MONDAY
MORNING. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER PASC TUESDAY MORNING AND NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE A 995 MB LOW CURRENTLY NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND WILL
DEEPEN TO 988 MB SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE 150 NM TO THE NORTH. THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST TO BE 200 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS
WILL CREATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE
SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF PAWI AND MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF PAWI. HIGH
SURF ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA
NEAR SHISHMAREF. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR THESE AREAS.

AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT VALLEY LOCATIONS
MONDAY AND LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATION. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE FOR
AT LEAST 12 HOURS WILL SET WILL CREATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS FOR
THE NORTH SHORE OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHISHMAREF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE
SOUTH OF PAWI SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO BEGIN
IN BARROW BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC SEP 14