Gale Warning 89, NWS Fairbanks, AK

602 
FZAK51 PAFG 271257
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
457 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-280100-
457 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
999MB LOW DEVELOPS 200NM NW OF WAINWRIGHT MOVING N TO 77N 155W AND
BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVE E THU. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS
WED.

$$

PKZ225-280100-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
457 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-280100-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
457 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-280100-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
457 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-280100-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
457 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-280100-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
457 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SDB/NTS OCT 14

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
430 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 36
HOURS...THEN CANNOT AGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THEY AREA SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND TUESDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE A ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST IN
ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL
MOVE TO LIE FROM OVER BARROW TO FAIRBANKS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 505 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL BE ABSORBED BY
A LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REORIENTS
TO LIE FROM 80N 180 TO OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND...THEN SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A 543 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CUTOFF AND MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
YUKON TERRITORY BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST.

ON THE SURFACE...DECAYING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WILL SPLIT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES AROUND 1015MB HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEATHER FRONT THAT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE WEST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. LINGERING SNOW
OVER THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL END. STRONG
WEATHER FRONT WILL REACH THE BERING STRAIT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THE WEST COAST AROUND BEFORE NOON. PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN IN THE
INLAND AREAS. REALLY HARD TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS WITH IT BEING
MIXED OR REALLY WET HEAVY SNOW. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
AREAS WELL INLAND THAN STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
CAN STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR MOST
AREAS...AND MAYBE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
COAST. WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.
STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SOUTH OR POINT LAY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE AGAIN TODAY WITH
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES WEST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS. GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH AND POOR VISIBILITY
IN BLOWING SNOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WINDY...GUSTY...WET...AND SNOWY
INLAND. CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF IN THE COASTAL AREAS. ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT
COAST AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
AREAS. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT WILL REACH ST
LAWRENCE THIS MORNING AND THE COAST AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL RAMP
UP DRAMATICALLY ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH BY LATE
MORNING. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE FELT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON
MONDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE STILL LOOKS TO BE 2 TO 6 FEET WITH THE
HIGHEST SURGE IN THE BERING STRAIT. COMBINED WITH SEAS THAT WILL
BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA TO 15 TO 25 FEET AND SEAS IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF 4 TO 12 FEET WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES. SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS SO
WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR...BUT LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SMALL DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR ALASKA RANGE
PASSES THAT WILL SEE WINDS KICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 50 MPH. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS NEAR THE BROOKS
RANGE PASSES SO Z218 WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH
WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH AND LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ218.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ217.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

&&

SDB OCT 14