Gale Warning 87, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
350 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THEY
CONTINUE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL QUITE
A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE LOW OVER
SIBERIA AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEY DO STILL AGREE THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY
IN THE WEEK AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THOUGH THE WEEK. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE BUT THE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS HAS GOTTEN SMALLER.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE 499 DAM LOW
OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST LATE THIS
MORNING THEN SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF HEADING INTO THE ARCTIC AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE WEST COAST AND
MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO OVER BARROW BY EARLY
MONDAY...THEN OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE MONDAY. LONG WAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS FROM OVER THE DATELINE TO OVER THE CHUKCHI AND
EASTERN BERING SEA MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...WEATHER FRONT OVER EASTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING. DECAYING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE UPPER
KOYUKUK BASIN...CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. A
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS...THEN INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. YET ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. 987MB LOW OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS AFTERNOON
THEN NORTH. IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW THAT
MOVES FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY
MONDAY AT 974MB. THE LOW THEN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 994MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. MODELS ARE
BRING UP TO 0.25 INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING...THEN A 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON. THE STRONGEST
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING UP TO 0.75 INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOME AREAS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MAINLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 20 MPH RANGE
FOR MOST AREAS...WINDS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE BROOKS RANGE
PASSES AND TO 35 MPH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR Z206 BROOKS RANGE
PASSES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OR
FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FOG. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE MAINLY WEST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. SOME
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BUSY...BUSY...BUSY. THE PARADE
OF FRONTS CONTINUES TODAY AS WE BUILD UP TO TO STORMIER
CONDITIONS. FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING IS
SPREADING SNOW OVER THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS
MORNING. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH OF NOME...OVER THE
NULATO HILLS...AND IN THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. INLAND NORTH OF ANVIK SNOWFALL WILL BE UP TO
2 INCHES. SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...OR TURNING TO RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. EVEN BIGGER STORM MOVING TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
WILL BRING A BUNCH OF ISSUES. SNOW AND RAIN...WIND...HIGH
SURF...JUST TO NAME A FEW. FRONT EXPECTED TO HIT THE COAST MID
MORNING SUNDAY AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS TO 968MB JUST NORTHEAST
OF GAMBELL. STRONG GRADIENT OF 18MB BETWEEN GAMBELL AND NOME
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN 55 TO 70 MPH RANGE
OVER THE WATER. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 30
FEET OVER THE BERING SEA...WHILE SEAS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND
NORTON SOUND BUILD TO 8 TO 15 FEET. WINDS WILL KICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME WEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH. WITH
THE BUILDING SEAS AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...TO THE EAST EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SO LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND BROOKS RANGE AS THE LOW OUT
WEST WINDS UP PRETTY TIGHT. WILL ISSUE HIGH WINDS WATCHES FOR Z225
AND Z226 BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS
A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR Z218 MAINLY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND WINDS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ206-AKZ218.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

SDB OCT 14