Gale Warning 56, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1242 PM AKDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PRESENT MINIMAL SPREAD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND ACCEPTABLE SPREAD IN THE MID RANGE AND
LONG RANGE. TRANSITION FROM CURRENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA IN FAVOR OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA
AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS UNDERWAY.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 521 DAM LOW CENTERED 150 NM NORTH OF WRANGELL
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST AND SOUTH TO BE LOCATED 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY MONDAY MORNING AS A 552 DAM RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE BERING SEA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE IN THE BERING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND EAST AND PARKS OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
PARKS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A STRONG FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND
INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH HARD TO PIN DOWN
TIMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST
OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE ESPECIALLY THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES. SEVERAL SUB ADVISORY SNOW EVENTS THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE
BROOKS RANGE WILL ADD UP BY WEEKS END. EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
NORTHWEST FAVORED UP SLOPE AREAS MAY SEE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH. SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WEST COAST
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH MONDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG
AND THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF ELEVATED SURF AND
EXPECTED BEACH EROSION AS WINDS AND WAVE ACTION INCREASE THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 207 AND 201 AND MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 202.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONE 207 BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND FOR ZONE 201 FOR BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR ZONE 202 BEGINS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC SEP 14