Gale Warning 54, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1246 PM AKDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...

ARCTIC COAST...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER RUSSIA WILL MOVE NORTH OF
WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 987 MB LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT...BRINGING IT 330 MILES NORTH OF
BARROW MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST TO A
POSITION ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SLOW EAST MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
TIME FOR A LENGTHY FETCH DURATION OF 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC
COASTAL WATERS. PLACES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST NORMALLY PRONE TO
BEACH EROSION...COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH WATER CAUSED BY WEST
WINDS OVER OPEN WATER WITH A LONG FETCH DURATION SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION AND BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY.
KEEP ALERT FOR ISSUANCE'S OF FURTHER STATEMENTS... INCLUDING
WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES.

BARROW...
WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER OPEN WATER TO THE WEST OF BARROW
ON SUNDAY THEN EXPAND EAST TO BARROW EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE COAST. THE ROAD FROM BARROW
TO POINT BARROW WILL LIKELY HAVE EROSION MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY AS THE WEST WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 30
KNOT...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATER WEST OF BARROW.

KAKTOVIK...
WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY A FETCH OF
WEST WINDS AT AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND WEST TO BARROW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. AT KAKTOVIK...THE EASTERN END OF THE
AIRPORT RUNWAY AND THE COMMUNITY DUMP WILL BE THREATENED WITH
RISING WATER...BEGINNING MONDAY. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRPORT AT KAKTOVIK MAY BECOME
INOPERABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

UPPER AIR...TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MACKENZIE BAY FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGIN ERODING FROM THE WEST AS TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT TO EAST OF
KOTZEBUE SOUND TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND THE SOUTH TO NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH
OF BARROW TO FORT YUKON...TO FAIRBANKS...AND TO SOUTH OF
ANCHORAGE. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA.

SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF RUSSIA TO
WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4AM AKDT SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE 986MB 430
MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO
THE BEAUFORT SEA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI
SEA TO BARROW...SOUTH TO NORTON SOUND...AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST MARINE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

WEST COAST TO WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI
WILL PRODUCE RAIN ON SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. UPSLOPING COULD BRING
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE
INCHES ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A RATHER DRY PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEST COAST UNTIL MID WEEK.

INTERIOR...DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT PASSES EAST. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ500-PKZ505-PKZ510
&&

DA SEP 14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1142 AM AKDT FRI SEP 26 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER RUSSIA WILL MOVE NORTH OF
WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 987 MB LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT...BRINGING IT 330 MILES NORTH OF
BARROW MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST TO A
POSITION ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SLOW EAST MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR A LENGTHY FETCH DURATION OF 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
ARCTIC COASTAL WATERS. PLACES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST NORMALLY
PRONE TO BEACH EROSION...COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH WATER CAUSED
BY WEST WINDS OVER OPEN WATER WITH A LONG FETCH DURATION SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
PROPERTY. KEEP ALERT FOR ISSUANCE'S OF FURTHER STATEMENTS...
INCLUDING WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES.

AKZ204-271500-
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
1142 AM AKDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY A FETCH OF WEST
WINDS AT AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA COAST AND WEST TO BARROW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. AT KAKTOVIK...THE EASTERN END OF THE AIRPORT
RUNWAY AND THE COMMUNITY DUMP WILL BE THREATENED WITH RISING
WATER...BEGINNING MONDAY. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRPORT AT KAKTOVIK MAY BECOME INOPERABLE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

AKZ202-271500-
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK
1142 AM AKDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER OPEN WATER TO THE WEST OF
BARROW ON SUNDAY THEN EXPAND EAST TO BARROW EARLY MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL LIKELY BE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE COAST. THE ROAD
FROM BARROW TO POINT BARROW WILL LIKELY HAVE EROSION MONDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY AS
THE WEST WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 30
KNOT...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATER WEST OF BARROW.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1142 AM AKDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING OR BEACH EROSION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER RUSSIA WILL MOVE NORTH OF
WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 987 MB LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT...BRINGING IT 330 MILES NORTH OF
BARROW MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST TO A
POSITION ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SLOW EAST MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR A LENGTHY FETCH DURATION OF 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
ARCTIC COASTAL WATERS. PLACES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST NORMALLY
PRONE TO BEACH EROSION...COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH WATER CAUSED
BY WEST WINDS OVER OPEN WATER WITH A LONG FETCH DURATION SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
PROPERTY. KEEP ALERT FOR ISSUANCE'S OF FURTHER STATEMENTS...
INCLUDING WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES.

AKZ204-271500-
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
1142 AM AKDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY A FETCH OF WEST
WINDS AT AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA COAST AND WEST TO BARROW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK. AT KAKTOVIK...THE EASTERN END OF THE AIRPORT
RUNWAY AND THE COMMUNITY DUMP WILL BE THREATENED WITH RISING
WATER...BEGINNING MONDAY. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRPORT AT KAKTOVIK MAY BECOME INOPERABLE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

AKZ202-271500-
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK
1142 AM AKDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER OPEN WATER TO THE WEST OF
BARROW ON SUNDAY THEN EXPAND EAST TO BARROW EARLY MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL LIKELY BE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE COAST. THE ROAD
FROM BARROW TO POINT BARROW WILL LIKELY HAVE EROSION MONDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY AS
THE WEST WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 30
KNOT...ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATER WEST OF BARROW.