Gale Warning 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

169 
FZAK69 PAFG 202137
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-211245-
137 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1029MB HIGH NEAR 86N 180 WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. A 997MB LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL DRIFT E AS IT WEAKENS. A
998MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR PRUDHOE BAY TONIGHT THEN MOVE NE AS IT
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES EARLY MON. A 1005MB LOW OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE NW ARCTIC COAST BY MON EVENING. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

$$

PKZ500-211245-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
137 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-211245-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
137 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW
IN THE EVENING. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-211245-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
137 PM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SDB/RM SEP 14

847 
FZAK69 PAFG 211150
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-220300-
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1027MB HIGH NEAR THE POLE WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. A
1001 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL DRIFT E AS
IT WEAKENS. A 1005 MB LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL DEEPEN TO 995
MB OVER POINT LAY BY MONDAY MORNING AND BE LOCATED NEAR BARROW AS
A 996 MB LOW MONDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ500-220300-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-220300-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-220300-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
350 AM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

CCC/DJH SEP 14

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE
WITHIN A COUPLE MB OF EACH OTHER AND VERY CLOSE ON TRACK TAKING
THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST ON A TRACK ABOUT 75 NM
OFF SHORE AS A 992 TO 994 MB LOW WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A LOW THAT
IS SLOWER TO DEEPEN BUT ULTIMATELY IS AROUND 988 MB BUT TRACKS
PARALLEL TO THE NAM AND GFS TRACKS BUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST.
SIMILAR TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED AT 700 HPA AND 500 HPA. TIGHT
GRADIENTS AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY. THE MODEL
SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA A 530 DAM CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHORT WAVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO A LONG WAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
BERING SEA. A 540 DAM LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND
WILL DEEPEN AS IT DIGS SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AS A 538 DAM LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PRODUCES DEEP
CYCLOGENISIS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN THE
MODELS DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW POSITION
DIFFERING BY OVER 200 NM AND LOW DEPTH VARYING FROM 976 MB TO 992
MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CONSENSUS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW RAPIDLY NORTH
WITH LANDFALL NEAR YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW SPREADS NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER INTO TUESDAY.

ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY AND STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...LIGHT SNOW...FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR ZONES 203 AND 204. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
BERING SEA.

INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE WEAK LOW THAT MOVED OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR IS PULL NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST OUT OF WESTERN ALASKA. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY TO
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GAP FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES WITH WIND ADVISORY
HOISTED FOR PASSES IN ZONE 226. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC SEP 14