Gale Warning 44, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
240 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT THE 574 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 78 N
AND THE DATELINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A 525 DAM
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC DIGS SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDS A
TROUGH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR TO 546
DAM LOW CENTERED NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ST MATTHEW ISLAND DEEPENS TO 540 DAM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TO BE
LOCATED NEAR ST PAUL ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST TO WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC DIGS SOUTH AND WEST.
THE GFS REMAINS BULLISH ON RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WITH ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND NAM STORM
TOTALS REMAIN IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE.
PREFERRED A MODEL BLEND OF GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ON QPF TOTALS WHICH
TOTALED IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

ON THE SURFACE A 986 MB LOW CENTERED 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST
MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND WILL FILL TO 989
MB AND BE LOCATED NEAR ST PAUL ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE
WINDS ON TAP FOR PKZ210 HOWEVER WITH STRONGEST GRADIENT SLIPPING
SOUTH WILL CAN STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 80 NORTH AND 145 WEST WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 1030 MB AS IT SLIPS SOUTH AND WEST TO BE CENTERED NEAR 75 NORTH
AND 160 WEST. A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. EAST
TO NORTHEAST GALES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE AND MKZONES 240 AND 245. GALES DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE...ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND OFF SHORE ZONE
500. NO COASTAL EROSION CONCERNS ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME RISK ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE
ESPECIALLY NEAR BARTAR ISLAND. STORM SURGE MODELS INDICATE LESS
THAN HALF FOOT SURGE DEVELOPS WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT IS OFF SHORE HOWEVER OFF SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD TO 8
FT IN MARINE ZONES 240 AND 245.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN...WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR AND
ALONG A LINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER YK DELTA REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED VALUES IN THE MINUS 1 TO MINUS 2 RANGE AND
CAPE VALUES AROUND 300. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE
AREAS. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT GUSTY GAP FLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES... WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE 40S IN THESE AREAS. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS FUELS REMAIN
MOIST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF FOR NORTH SLOPE ZONES
EAST OF BARROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE LOWER YK DELTA. GUSTY GAP FLOW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 40S IN THESE AREAS. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS
FUELS REMAIN MOIST...HOWEVER A DRYING TREND OVER THE INTERIOR INTO
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE FUELS
OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS HAVE CRESTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECTED DRYING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL
ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO FALL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

CCC AUG 14