Gale Warning 37, NWS Fairbanks, AK

770 
FZAK51 PAFG 011057 CCA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKDT THU MAY 1 2014

CORRECTED ZONE 225

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-020015-
257 AM AKDT THU MAY 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 MB LOW 100 MILES WEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE
TO 500 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4 AM FRI
WEAKENING TO 1001 MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR BANKS ISLAND
AND THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA BY 4 AM FRI.

$$

PKZ225-020015-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
257 AM AKDT THU MAY 1 2014

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-020015-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
257 AM AKDT THU MAY 1 2014

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT.
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-020015-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
257 AM AKDT THU MAY 1 2014

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-020015-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
257 AM AKDT THU MAY 1 2014

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-020015-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
257 AM AKDT THU MAY 1 2014

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

RF/RM/SDB MAY 14

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 PM AKDT WED APR 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
HIGH OVER SW ALASKA WILL BUILD TO A STRONG 576DM HIGH OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA THU THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NW BERING SEA
AND MAKES ITS WAY TO THE BERING STRAIT BY SUN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH THE WEAKER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND OVER
MOST OF ALASKA THU AND FRI WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRI.

SURFACE...
AN ARCTIC FRONT FROM EAGLE TO BARROW WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE
TO BARROW BY 4AM THU AND NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF AK THU.
EXPECT SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT TURNING TO
RAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

A 986 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF
ANADYR AS A 997 MB LOW BY 4AM THU...AND TO NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL
ISLAND AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 4PM THU. EAST OF THIS LOW SOUTHERLY
GALES ARE BLOWING OVER THE CHUKCHI AND EASTERN BERING SEAS THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND DECREASE THU AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH.

A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO POINT HOPE TO ANAKTUVUK
PASS WILL MOVE TO WRANGEL ISLAND TO BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM THU AND
THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST THU AM. PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE FRONT. COULD
SEE SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. AS THIS FEATURE OVER RIDES THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT SNOW
TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT FROM
BARROW EAST. WILL ISSUE WWA FOR ZONE 202 FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP EYE ON ZONE 203 WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LESS
LIKELY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE FREEZING RAIN IF IT DOES OCCUR.

A COOL FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA SOUTH WILL
STRETCH NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE TO NORTH OF BARROW TO POINT HOPE
TO THE BERING STRAIT SOUTH BY 4PM THU THEN REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THROUGH FRI. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND NO SNOW
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS FEATURE WITH PRECIPITATION ENHANCED
ALONG SW FACING SLOPES.

A LOW DEVELOPING OVER NE RUSSIA FRI WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA
SAT. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT EAST TO THE WEST COAST LATE
SAT BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRI PM. ONE DIFFERENCE IS
ON LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WHERE THE GFS HAS
PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THAN THE NAM OR
ECMF. SINCE THIS IS WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING AROUND A
FLAT TOPPED RIDGE ALOFT WE WILL USE THE GFS PRECIPITATION ON THE
ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING AND DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR THU THROUGH FRI. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND RH IN THE 20S THU...AND HIGHS NEAR 70 WITH RH
15-25% FRI AND SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FREEZING LEVELS ARE NOW 3000-5000 FT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND
WILL BE RISING NORTH TO THOSE LEVELS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU WITH A BELOW FREEZING LAYER AT THE SURFACE
ALONG THE COAST FROM BARROW EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE MELTING TO START
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE AND MOVE SOME WATER INTO
RIVERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8000-10000
FT BY FRI AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH
LEVEL SNOW TO MELT FAST AND START FILLING RIVERS IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ202.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215.
&&

JB APR 14