Gale Warning 35, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
652 AM AKDT TUE APR 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR...REACHING THE ALCAN BORDER BY WED. VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA AFTER THE
SHORT WAVE EXITS...HIGH PRESSURE WITH 570+ DAM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THU. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
FRI...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME THEREAFTER. ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER SLOWLY WESTWARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PUNCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. GFS KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH TUE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL WARM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO +4 TO +8C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE INTO THEN LOWER 70S AT
SOME SPOTS.

UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN ZONES
208 AND 217 TODAY...AND OVER ZONE 218 TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.

A 992 MB LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE BEAUFORT SEA BY EARLY WED. A 982 MB LOW 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO A 975 MB LOW 600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY EARLY WED...THEN RAPIDLY
WEAKENING SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR BY EARLY THU.
THIS LOW WILL BRING MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO MARINE
ZONES PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230...AND ANOTHER EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY BE RAIN...BUT MAY BEGIN AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA.

STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST
WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM THROUGH 8 PM
TODAY FOR WINDS AND LOW RH. WARMING AND LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR LATER THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MIN RH BELOW 15% WILL BE LIKELY
OVER MANY AREAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE WEST COAST
WED. FREEZING LEVELS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RISE TO ABOUT
8000 FEET BY LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
MELTING OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW BEGINNING THU. THIS WATER
WILL LIKELY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE RIVERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ218.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

RF APR 14