Gale Warning 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
355 AM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 60 HOURS CONTINUES. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...ESPECIALLY THE PRECIPITATION
FIELDS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...SHORTWAVE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST TO BANKS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH 540 DAM HEIGHTS AS FAR WEST AS
TANANA AND NORTH TO ARCTIC VILLAGE. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE WEST FACE OF THE RIDGE KICKING OFF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE
THURSDAY MORNING WILL KICK SHOWERS OFF AS FAR EAST AS FAIRBANKS.
THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA. AT
850 HPA...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE
OF WARM AIR WITH THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES TO THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...984MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST.
A 993MB LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA IS MOVING
INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING AND WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. 960MB LOW 600NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE NORTH TO
COLD BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO 150NM WEST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING AND TO THE
BROOKS RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA RANGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING. CHINOOK WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST...RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND TODAY BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME BREAKS TODAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PROCESSION CONTINUES.
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR MEANS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA...BUT THE WARM AIR WILL SURGE ALL THE WAY TO THE ARCTIC
COAST BRINGING A POTENTIAL TO ALL AREAS. EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE.

INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET. EXPECT CHINOOK WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY SPOTTY
AND MAINLY WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS SHORTWAVES MOVE UP THE WEST COAST.
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BUT LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR
SURGES NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ227.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

SDB JAN 14