Gale Warning 105, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
516 PM AKST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN CHANGE IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA TO ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AS A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL ROTATE
NORTHWEST TO NORTON SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL SWING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
THE STATE TONIGHT...AND EXTEND FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
NORTHEAST TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. NORTHERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT ONLY SNOWFALL.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST DRIFTS INLAND. MUCH STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE HIGH IN THE ARCTIC SHIFTS SOUTH AND TIGHTENS
THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC.
THIS COMBINED WITH SNOWFALL FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY RESULT
IN LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WESTERN ALASKA...A WINTRY MIX OF WEATHER TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS FROM SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD.
PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MIXED WITH
SNOW WITH THE BEST OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM THE LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEY TO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH WITH A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE BROOKS RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.

INTERIOR...THE QUESTION OF THE DAY IS WHETHER FREEZING RAIN WILL
FALL IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
ALOFT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT
CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS
SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FROM
HITTING THE GROUND. TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. EAST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 50 MPH IN THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA WILL GIVE AWAY TO
ADVISORY LEVEL CHINOOK WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ227.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

NOV 14