Frost Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO DISPLAY REASONABLE RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY AS WELL AS MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH BOTH
THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE MID TERM. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS A
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 250 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...THE 512 DAM LOW NEAR 74 NORTH AND 165 WEST
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SHORTWAVES INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO EAST AND
MOVING INTO THE YUKON. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST TODAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
NORTH SLOPE AND WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SLOPE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT VALLEY LOCATIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY WHERE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT PASS LEVEL IN THE
ALASKA RANGE LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN OVER MANY
AREAS SUNDAY MORNING.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE PLOWS INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A 995 MB LOW 400 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW ON
SUNDAY DEEPENS TO 990 MB AND IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED 300 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO
AROUND 986 MB AND WILL CREATE STRONG NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT TO
 TO MINIMAL GALES ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION BARROW AND
POINTS WEST. FAVORABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SETS UP OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE JET QUADRANT MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF FOR TWO RUNS NOW
ARE INDICATING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HYDRO ISSUES IF SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE QPF AMOUNTS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
MAX SMALL CRAFT TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH SURF ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN AND INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM TOTAL
QPF RAIN FALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR MONDAY...AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY- MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.
&&

CCC AUG 14