Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

798 
WGAK69 PAFG 090754
FFAAFG

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1154 PM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2014


AKZ224-226-090900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140709T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...TOK...TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN...NORTHWAY...ALCAN...
CHICKEN...BOUNDARY...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...
DONNELLY DOME...TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
1154 PM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FOR THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY EAST OF DOT LAKE AND THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
EAST OF DOT LAKE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE
DIMINISHED.



$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS INITIALIZE WELL WITH A 569DM HIGH OVER THE
CHUCKHI SEA...549DM LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA...558DM LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COASTAL ALASKA...AND A 546DM LOW NORTH OF BANKS
ISLAND. THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CHUCKHI SEA HIGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY...THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA LOW MOVES INLAND OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA...THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL ALASKA LOW MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST AND INLAND OVER CANADA...AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE BANKS ISLAND LOW DRIFTS SOUTH. ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A 549DM LOW IS OVER BRISTOL BAY...A RIDGE
EXTENDS NORTH FROM SOUTHEAST COASTAL ALASKA TO SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
ALASKA...AND LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OF BANKS ISLAND. ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A 546DM LOW IS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA...AND
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TO ARCTIC VILLAGE
AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...WITH THIS PATTERN PERSISTING WEAKENING
SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY WEST
OVER BETTLES TO NEAR KIVALINA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL DRIFT EAST.
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND
WEAKEN.

NORTH SLOPE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE INTERIOR WILL CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEST COAST...A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN NORTH TO NORTON SOUND WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.

INTERIOR...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR COMBINED WITH HIGH
WATER CONTENT WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALSO SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIDGE BUILDING ON
FRIDAY WILL SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE STARTS FROM WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED BY MIN RH'S MAINLY IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH WET FUELS IN
MANY SECTIONS. IN THE ALASKA RANGE...WINDS IN PASSES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER ON FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...THEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OVER THE
INTERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE WETTER CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPDATED HYDROGRAPH FOR THE TANANA RIVER AT NENANA
SHOWS STAGE BARELY AT ACTION THROUGH FRIDAY. NO NEW INFORMATION
FROM NORTH POLE...SO FLOOD ADVISORY WILL UPDATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

DA JUL 14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
425 PM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AKZ222-110030-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
425 PM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...GROUND WATER WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...

THE CHENA RIVER HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE MONDAY AND THE
THREAT OF FLOODING FROM THE RIVER IS NOW OVER. THE CHENA RIVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK BUT REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WATER THAT IS PONDED IN LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE FAIRBANKS NORTH
STAR BOROUGH WILL DRAIN AWAY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK. GROUND WATER
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS
OF BASEMENTS AND CRAWL SPACES FLOODING IN THE CITY OF NORTH POLE,
THE CITY OF FAIRBANKS, AND ALONG THE CHENA RIVER FROM NORTH POLE TO
FAIRBANKS. IT IS EXPECTED THAT AREAS WHICH CURRENTLY HAVE GROUND
WATER PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THOSE PROBLEMS THROUGH THE
WEEK.