Brisk Wind Advisory 91, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1231 PM AKST WED FEB 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM WEST COAST OF
THE LOWER 48 TO EASTERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL
FRIDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES INTO WESTERN
ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EVEN NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE BY
THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TO THE EAST
UNDER THE RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH THE STRONG
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE AND
A REPOSITIONING THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. A STRONG COLD TROUGH ALOFT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA AND FORCE THE RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE BERING SEA. IN EITHER SOLUTION THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
MAINLAND.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAJORITY OF THE WEATHER ACTION THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ARCTIC. THE
MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND AMOUNTS VARY
BETWEEN MODELS. INTERMITTENT SNOW ALONG WITH FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC INTO FRIDAY. THE
FORECASTS REFLECT THIS WITH CHANCES OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG WITH SEVERAL ADVISORIES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
EFFECT...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN OCCUR.

IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE CHUKCHI AND ARCTIC COASTS. BRISK WINDS AND
GALES WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT DIMINISH IN MOST
AREAS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ214-AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

EWP FEB 14