Brisk Wind Advisory 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
442 AM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...AT 500 HPA THEY REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH 78 HOURS OR SO AS
A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA PINBALLS AROUND. AT THE SURFACE THEY
ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS AS LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA SLOWLY DEEPENS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 483 DAM CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER KODIAK WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
BECOME QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE UP THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STRENGTHEN
THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR IS BEING MIXED
OUT BY THE WARM AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THE GULF. MODELS DO
CONTINUE TO SHOW A POOL OF COLD OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THAT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...977 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY AS IT DEEPENS TO 968 MB SATURDAY MORNING NEAR
CORDOVA. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE HANGS AROUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY
TO THE ARCTIC COAST...GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN
TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW BRING BANDS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE
INTERIOR. A BAND WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WORKING UP INTO THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND
OUT TO THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE ARCTIC. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED THOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. 0755Z MODIS 11UM SHOWS A
PATCH OF STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED BUT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL
DEVELOP WEST OF DEADHORSE TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILL
FALLING TO AROUND 55 BELOW...SO WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE
AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COLD TEMPERATURES HANGING ON
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH FOR
CLOUDS AS EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH SOME SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY...KOBUK VALLEY...AND NOATAK VALLEY AT THIS TIME.

INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW OVER THE GULF SWINGING BANDS OF MOISTURE
NORTH EXPECT SNOW TO DE3VELOP OVER ZONE 226 THIS EVENING WORKING
NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING AND TO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY EVENING. GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY WITH WINDS OVER SUMMITS BLOWING AROUND 25
MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS. THE BAND OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
MIGRATE NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
THE COLD IS REINFORCED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-
AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ218.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

SDB FEB 14