Brisk Wind Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 PM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT... LOW IN SW ALASKA MOVING TO NEAR HUSLIA BY 3AM THU AND
THEN WEAKENING IN PLACE THU PM. WEAK SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE EAST OF THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
BECOMING WESTERLY TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE LOW.

A LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA THU
AND TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA FRI. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
THIS FEATURE. RIDGING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BUILD OVER SW ALASKA
TONIGHT...OVER INTERIOR AK THU AND OVER EASTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH
SLOPE OF AK THU NIGHT AND FRI. EXPECT SOME CLEARING UNDER THIS
RIDGE AND SURFACE COOLING THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THAT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 0C IN THE SE INTERIOR TO -10C IN
THE NE INTERIOR. COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD FROM THE NE INTERIOR S
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THU.

SURFACE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI.A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WILL
DISSIPATE THU PM. EAST WINDS 30G40 MPH AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
COAST WILL DECREASE THU PM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A 984 MB LOW IN COOK INLET WILL MOVE TO NEAR SEWARD BY 3AM THU
AND THEN DISSIPATE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
LIES FROM ILIAMNA TO BETHEL TO GOLOVIN TO INDIAN MOUNTAIN WITH A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH TO FAIRBANKS TO CORDOVA...AND A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING FROM INDIAN MOUNTAIN TO OLD CROW. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TO NORTON SOUND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO ARCTIC VILLAGE BY 3AM
THU AND DISSIPATE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THU NIGHT. EXPECT 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONT.

AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM SEWARD TO
DELTA JUNCTION AND MOVE OVER THE SE INTERIOR THU PM. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND BY
3PM THU...TO NEAR CAPE ROMANZOF AS A 994 MB LOW BY 3AM FRI...AND
TO NEAR NOME AS A 1008 MB LOW BY 3PM FRI. EXPECT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SE WINDS 30 KT. SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS POINT LOOK TO BE 2-4 INCHES. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR
FREEZING DO NOT EXPECT BLIZ WITH THIS FEATURE.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL ALOFT WITH SIMILAR PATTERNS THROUGH FRI.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW IN COOK INLET WAS A BIT DEEPER AT 18Z THAN
MODELS SHOWED. MODELS SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS THROUGH FRI BUT GFS IS
DEEPER WITH LOW THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN BERING THU. PREFER THE
DEEPER GFS SURFACE PATTERN WHICH WILL CAUSE BIT STRONGER WINDS
ALONG WEST COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI. PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
SIMILAR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ219-
AKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235.

JAN 14