Brisk Wind Advisory 207, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1210 PM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LARGE BLOCK CENTERED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF BREAK DOWN IN THE THE SHORT OR MID TERM...HOWEVER IN THE LONG
RANGE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT REASONABLE SPREAD
IN THE NEAR AND MID TERM. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED MODELS EXHIBIT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS OF SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH BLOCKED
PATTERN BREAKING DOWN.

ON THE SURFACE A 1041 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PARK NORTH OF
SIBERIA THROUGH THE WEEK. A 959 MB LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED 200 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST TO BE LOCATED OVER COLD BAY AS A 962 MB LOW
TUESDAY MORNING AND OVER BRISTOL BAY AS A 975 MB LOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES NORTHWEST OVER
THE INTERIOR. A WEAK WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
AND CONTINUES TO BRING FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW ALONG A PARC TO
PAGA LINE. THIS WEAK WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWEST
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1041 MB HIGH NORTH OF
SIBERIA AND THE 959 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STORM
FORCE WINDS IN MARINE ZONES 225 AND 220 IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA AND HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN AND AROUND THE POINT
HOPE AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO FOUND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT AND
ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR SUMMITS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR WIND CHILL AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES CONTINUE FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SLOPE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND NEAR 40 BELOW ARE COMBINING
WITH WINDS TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WITH MANY LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 50S BELOW OVER NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING. HOWARD PASS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE HAS HAD
WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 82 BELOW THIS MORNING WITH THE
TEMPERATURE A BALMY 33 BELOW AND A STEADY NORTH WIND AT 56 KTS.
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE
PASSES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NORTH SHORE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND FOR POSSIBLE
BEACH EROSION FREEZING SPRAY NEAR SHORE WITH BREAKING WAVES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230.
&&

CCC DEC 14

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