Brisk Wind Advisory 199, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
524 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
AND MID TERM. EXPECTED LEVELS OF MODEL SPREAD ENTER THE PICTURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

ONGOING WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN ZONES 212...214...AND 215. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

A 972 MB LOW OVER IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA NEAR 60N AND 170W
WITH A STRONG FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TO NEAR PAMC CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. WARM TONGUE ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OVER
THE YK DELTA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO PLUS 3 RANGE.
WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND CHANGED TO RAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER YK DELTA. EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION IN THE .1 TO .3 INCH RANGE IN THE WARNED AREAS.
EXPECTING LESS FREEZING RAIN FURTHER EAST WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW FROM PAMC EAST.

A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WILL EXTEND TO PFYU INTO TUESDAY AND EXTENDS FROM
BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEAR 500 HP. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE BACK OF A FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. AN ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AND
WILL FEED A WIDE SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER YK
DELTA NORTHEAST TO PYFU. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ZONE
216 WAS UPGRADED TO WSW FOR EXPECTED STORM TOTALS IN THE 6 TO 12
INCH RANGE. SIMILAR STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OVER ZONES
216...219...220...221 AND 222. WINTER STORM WATCHES WERE UPGRADED
TO WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS.

GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND NORTHERLY TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW 6 TO 10 FOOT WAVES TO BREAK
NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL PUSH A 1 TO 2
FOOT SURGE ONTO SHORE. HOISTED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

CCC/ET DEC 14