Brisk Wind Advisory 166, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1251 AM AKDT THU MAY 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE WEST COAST BY SUN...WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
RIDGE BECOMING FLATTENED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF NORTHERN ALASKA. TIMING OF THE SHORT
WAVE POSITION SUN IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WITH DIFFERING
RESULTS FROM THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF LATITUDE 75N.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST AND ARCTIC SLOPE...WEST WINDS AT BARTER ISLAND HAVE
INCREASED TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. BRISK WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVED
THROUGH DEADHORSE AT 0620Z AS EVIDENCED BY A WIND SHIFT. SNOW HAS
ENDED AT DEADHORSE BUT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE
EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC BROOKS RANGE THROUGH FRI.

IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF BUILDING SOME
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
INTERIOR. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
ALCAN BORDER. GFS/ECMWF INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO NEAR +8C NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUE...THIS WOULD SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE LOW 70S NEAR THE BORDER.
TEMPERATURES IN THE THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR INCLUDING THE
FAIRBANKS AREA COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT IN MANY
INTERIOR AREAS TODAY AND FRI. CURRENT MODELS SHOW INDICATE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH COULD OCCUR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN MOST INTERIOR AREAS. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR
FRI...BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT FLATTER OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST FRI...LOCAL GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE KUPARUK RIVER NEAR
KUPARUK AND FOR THE COLVILLE RIVER DELTA AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ227.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE KUPARUK RIVER NEAR KUPARUK.
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COLVILLE RIVER DELTA AREA.

&&

RF MAY 14