Brisk Wind Advisory 159, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1236 PM AKDT WED MAY 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF
THE STATE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND ARCTIC THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING A
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OR A MIX OF BOTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF DRIVES THIS SYSTEM SOUTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SUNDAY
WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR SETTLING IN OVER THE STATE. THE GFS
IS LESS AGGRESSIVE BUT IN EITHER CASE COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER
WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL
MOVE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA ON THURSDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE
BEAUFORT SEA TO BANKS ISLAND BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN BY FRIDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR. MODELS ARE SHOWING
STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

WEST COAST...RAIN AND SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINFALL
FURTHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

NORTH SLOPE...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION AND BRISK WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY
AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL BRING FALLING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BECAUSE SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE THURSDAY DUE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE SOME ON FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REBOUND A BIT SO RED FLAGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO ISSUES. COOLER WEATHER IN THE ARCTIC WILL SUBDUE SNOW MELT AND
ALLOW RIVER ICE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEFORE ARCTIC DRAINING RIVERS
BEGIN TO BREAK UP.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

EWP MAY 14