Brisk Wind Advisory 151, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
205 AM AKDT THU MAY 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
576 DAM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE +4C TO +8C OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR BY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BUT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE RIDGE REMAINING IN THE +4C TO +8C RANGE.. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA BY LATE SAT AND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF ALASKA BY
SUN. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR THROUGH FRI...AND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S IN ZONES 201 AND 202 AND THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN HAS
ENDED. A 997 MB LOW WEST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC OCEAN BY EARLY FRI...PROG
POSITION FOR 4 AM FRI IS A 1001 LOW CENTER ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF
RUSSIA TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA BY THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT BE PUSHED GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS. RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURRING
AT TIMES OVER THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GFS MODEL IS PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
OVERDOING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AREA AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TODAY...
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WHERE A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING AND DRYING TODAY AND FRI. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TO UPPER
60S WITH MIN RH IN THE 20S IN MANY INTERIOR AREAS TODAY. FOR
FRI...HIGHS NEAR 70 WITH MIN RH UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 25 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...NO RED FLAGS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FREEZING LEVELS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
TODAY AND FRI...FREEZING LEVELS OF 8000-10000 FT MSL
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRI AND SAT....THEN
LOWERING SOME SUN AND MON. THIS WILL RESULTING IN RAPID
MELTING OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACK. MELTWATER WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN INTERIOR RIVERS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

OVER THE WEST COAST...FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT ABOUT 5000 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN LOWER OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SNOWMELT...SOME MELT WATER
LIKELY TO INFILTRATE INTO THE RIVERS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE...
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 5000 WILL RISE TO ABOUT 7000
FT THROUGH FRI...THEN START FALLING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD START SNOW MELT IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME
MELT WATER INFILTRATING INTO THE RIVERS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PKZ213.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

RF MAY 14