Brisk Wind Advisory 147, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
335 PM AKDT SUN APR 27 2014

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT... A VERY WEAK RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MON AND THEN BUILD FROM TUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUE AND THEN CLIMB TO WAY ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS RIDGE TO THE BERING STRAIT MON PM...TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
TUE PM AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST LATE MON AND INTO THE NW INTERIOR
TUE.

SURFACE...
A 1032 MB HIGH NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON AND
THEN WEAKEN TUE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST FROM
BARROW EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE.
THIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS 20-25 KT ALONG WITH FLURRIES AND FOG TO
PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT FROM BARROW EAST.

A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH FROM MCGRATH DELTA JUNCTION TO NORTHWAY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MON THEN DRIFT NORTH TO GALENA TO EAGLE MON NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE TUE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE BLOWING INTO THIS TROUGH.
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST WITH SOME ISOLATED
PM SHOWERS IN THE SE INTERIOR.

AN WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE GULF
OF ANADYR BY 4PM MON...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA BY 4AM
TUE...TO BARROW TO COLDFOOT TO GALENA TO GAMBELL BY 4PM TUE...AND
TO CIRCLE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY 4AM WED. EXPECT SNOW WITH THIS
FRONT FROM NOME TO ANAKTUVUK PASS WITH THIS FRONT WITH UP TO 4
INCHES ALONG SW FACING SLOPES. EXPECT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WITH
THE FRONT ALONG THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF NOME AND IN THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL INTERIOR AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION THROUGH 4PM MON.
EXCEPTION IS ON PRECIPITATION WHERE THE GFS APPEARS TO OVERDO
AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR. FAVOR THE DRIER NAM
PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE CURRENTLY VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL
CAUSE MOST PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE THROUGH MON OVER THE
INTERIOR.

AFTER 4PM MON THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WESTERN AND INTERIOR MORE NW THAN THE GFS. FAVOR THIS SOLUTION DUE
TO THE BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND TUE.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
TODAY AND MON WITH RH OF 15-20%. ISSUING RED FLAG THROUGH 8PM
THIS EVENING FOR LOW RH. RH INCREASING TUE AS FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB APR 14